The UAE has seen limited health impacts from the pandemic. The vaccine rollout, partial oil price recovery, and progress in digital transformation offer hope for the UAE economy. Technological progress will develop new growth drivers and raise potential growth over the medium-term. 

Russia is experiencing the largest protests in years in response to the jailing of Alexei Navalny. Many Russians are frustrated by stagnating incomes, a weak social safety net, and corruption. Years of fiscal consolidation to address sanctions have exacerbated socioeconomic challenges. However, we do not expect protests to change macroeconomic conditions in a fundamental way.

China’s exports were remarkably resilient in 2020, thanks to strong demand for PPE and WFH products. Export’s contribution to China’s economic growth in 2020 was greater than the headline number indicated. China’s exports are likely to be more balanced in 2021 as vaccination reopens global economy. 

Lack of alignment among ESG disclosure frameworks poses challenges for financial firms on what information to report; Signs of progress: ESG disclosure initiatives propose a common approach to rationalizing differing materiality concepts; Emissions disclosures on the rise; an impact accounting database of 1800+ firms highlights intensity of environmental losses

The January 2021 edition of the Insurance Update provides targeted updates on IIF insurance activities and events. 

CEEMEA countries recovered faster from the initial COVID-19 shock than expected. This is mainly due to virus containment allowing for a faster reopening of businesses. As a result, we are revising our estimate of the contraction in 2020 from 5.2% to 3.2%. However, a second wave of infections weighed on economic activity in recent months. We expect modest growth of 3.8% in 2021, but much depends on vaccinations efforts.

Ecuador’s IMF program entails steady fiscal adjustment. The government has kept austerity, redirecting spending to cope with COVID-19. However, implementation risk is on the rise ahead of the 2021 presidential election. Policy slippage could result in a challenging funding situation.

The January 2021 Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams.

The economy has been hit hard by the pandemic, unstable political situation, and the decline in oil prices and production. The devaluation combined with a modest recovery in oil prices could put the fiscal stance on a more sustainable footing. Improved governance is also needed to implement reforms. 

Global sustainable debt issuance hit an all-time record of over $655 billion in 2020, driven by rapid growth in ESG and sustainability-linked bonds. A more supportive global policy landscape could spur even more issuance in 2021