We project a mild economic contraction in 2020, followed by a gradual recovery this year. This is due to limited lockdown measures, a strong financial system, and reliance on SOEs. The FY2021 NDAA extended Nord Stream 2 sanctions but may not prevent its completion. Geopolitical risks stem from the incoming U.S. administration and the EU’s green agenda.

Sub-Saharan Africa experienced the first recession in thirty years in 2020 due to the COVID-19 shock. The global recession weighed on external demand and pandemic-related shutdowns on domestic activity. However, commodity prices fared better than expected, and the virus spread less than in other regions. Oil exporters were hit hardest, while countries with more diversified export bases appear less affected. The economic slowdown has had a strong effect on countries’ fiscal positions, and policy space is scarce. As a result, debt is rising across the region, and many countries are seeking relief through the G20 DSSI. Improved market sentiment has led to a return of foreign investors and alleviated financing pressure. Growth is expected to rebound strongly in 2021 where macro and policy environments are supportive. Risks, however, skew to the downside and stem from a second COVID-19 wave and poliical instability.

EM corporates have racked up $4 trillion in FX debt since 2007, bringing total FX exposure to $7 trillion; More in store:  current USD weakness—with no Fed rate hike seen pre-2025—sets the stage for continued buildup in FX debt; EM corporate eurobond issuance reached $380 billion in 2020, up 10% from 2019; a record 95% of that was in USD; Most of this issuance was driven by non-financial corporates ($220bn), especially in China ($68 billion)

Tensions and disputes between the U.S. and China are likely to continue, possibly resulting in further sanctions. We focus on lessons learned from the U.S. sanctions policy towards Russia, and what those could mean for U.S. sanctions towards Hong Kong or China. 

As the mountain of negative-yielding debt hits new record highs, EM sovereigns continue to benefit from the search for yield ; Emerging markets set to rely increasingly on USD borrowing as abundant global central bank liquidity persists; China has significantly cut back its lending to low-income countries

This briefing note describes the major themes and developments observed during this festival.

The IIF Sustainable Finance Monitor covers key developments in the global sustainable finance agenda. In the December issue, we discuss the how a US framework for sustainable finance could take shape under a Democratic Administration. In addition, we share the latest policy and regulatory updates, an overview of open sustainable finance consultations, news on key initiatives, frameworks and tools, our ESG market snapshot, and a calendar SFWG activities in 2021.

The PBoC halted its emergency easing as early as April, but continued to support the economy via fund-for-lending schemes and subsidies to bank loans. This note summarizes PBoC actions this year, with particular attention to the emergency funding schemes.