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Global Macro Views: What Scope for RMB Depreciation?

US tariffs are exerting depreciation pressure on the RMB, which we think could ultimately drive $/CNY well above 7.00. One illustration of that depreciation pressure is a $/CNY rate now back in the upper (weaker) half of the band around the fix. Another visualization are large residuals in our fixing model, which point to policy makers keeping RMB temporarily strong.

IIF Responds to FSB Consultation on SME Financing

The IIF responded to the recent FSB consultation evaluating the effects of financial regulatory reform on SME financing.  

Caucasus and Central Asia Report: Well-Positioned to Confront Challenges

Real GDP growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) remains strong in 2019, recovering from earlier external shocks of a fall in oil prices and sanctions on Russia. Growth should remain strong beyond the near term, although lower commodity prices and slowdown in major partners could pose risks.

IIF Flows Alerts: Trade Tantrum 2.0

Non-resident portfolio flows to emerging markets triggered a reversal alert on August 6, … following the further escalation of US-China trade...

Economic Views: The Fiscal Implications of Pemex

Pemex’s planned output increase has precedent, but is in the upper range of what others achieved. Shoring up Pemex involves a near-term fiscal cost, but could ease fiscal pressure in the medium-term. If Pemex disappoints, more fiscal cuts will be needed.

IIF Quarterly Global Debt Monitor 2019 - Slide Deck

This slide deck, based on our Global Debt Monitor, provides a snapshot of changing patterns in debt accumulation in both mature and emerging markets, and an overview of related risks. Do let us know if you’d like any of the underlying charts for use in your own work.

China Views: Household Debt No Longer a Growth Stimulus 

Household debt has fueled China's housing, consumption, and economic growth. Households' large financial and housing assets mitigate the risks of rising leverage. However, household leverage is no longer low relative to income, and can no longer be used to stimulate economic growth. 

Weekly Insight: Upping the ante

Precautionary Fed cuts tend to support the U.S. stock market, but have little lasting effect on the USD; A return to easier global financial conditions—if sustained—would reignite concern about rising EM debt levels; Foreign portfolio investment in Chinese equities rose sharply in 2018 and Q1 2019; plenty more room for growth…but international investors in Chinese A-shares still have concerns about restrictions on foreign ownership, high volatility and lack of liquidity  

GCC: Monetary Easing Speeds the Pace of Recovery

The GCC countries followed the Fed and cut their key policy rates, given their pegged exchange rates. Lower interest rates will encourage borrowing and stimulate non-oil growth, which has been weak in recent years. We expect non-oil growth to pick up from 2.1% in 2018 to 2.8% in 2019. 

Joint Trades Response to FSB Discussion Paper on Solvent Wind-down

Today the IIF, together with GFMA, and ISDA, submitted a joint response to the Financial Stability Board’s (FSB) discussion paper on the topic of Solvent Wind-down (SWD) of derivatives and trading portfolios.




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