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Economic Views: EM External Financing Needs

Our assessment of EM current accounts is benign, with large deficits just in South Africa and Colombia. However, still high debt amortization calls for caution. This is especially the case in Turkey and South Africa.
Resident outflows are a risk in Turkey and Argentina, despite much lower deficits due to import compression.

Morocco: Seeking to Shift into Higher Gear

Neglect of structural distortions has prevented Morocco from matching its more successful EM peers in raising its standard of living. 

FRT Episode 40: SEB CEO Johan Torgeby

FRT visits SEB CEO Johan Torgeby in Stockholm, to discuss Open Banking, Artificial Intelligence, advising new high-tech clients, and the emergence of Sweden’s cashless economy (with Brad Carr).

ASEAN Economic Views -- Import Compression: Unraveling Growth Outlook

High import content in export production and investment is evident across the region. Recent import compression should support current account positions amid weak exports. However, the multiplier effects of import plunge on investment will likely depress GDP growth.

Weekly Insight: Big green light

Disconnect between Fed dots and market rate expectations set to persist; Negative-yielding debt hits a record high of over $12 trillion—putting the risk of asset price bubbles in focus; Further USD strength could pose significant challenges for non-bank borrowers in emerging markets and mature markets outside the U.S.; More monetary stimulus would widen the gap between the cost of equity and debt, triggering another sharp accumulation in corporate debt; Robust growth in Panda bond issuance 

Saudi Arabia: Equity Inflows Surge With Capital Market Reforms

Supported by MSCI upgrade Saudi Arabia has attracted $10.8bn in foreign equity inflows so far this year. In contrast, renewed trade tensions sparked a sharp decline in portfolio equity flows to other EMs. Saudi Arabia can count on an additional $40bn in equity inflows in the coming years. 

Global Macro Views: Trade Tensions and Global Growth

Our global growth tracker has fallen to its lowest levels since 2015, driven by a sharp drop in manufacturing sentiment around the world. The evidence points to normal ups and downs in global manufacturing, with some early signs that hard-hit places like Germany are turning up.

CEEMEA Views: Romania - Growing Imbalances

Consumption-driven growth has led to increasing imbalances and inflation. Ad-hoc policy changes weigh on sentiment, undermining new investment. Further stimulus would pose risks to macroeconomic stability and outlook. 

Economic Views: Argentina's Debt Risk

Argentina’s public debt will decline markedly, if fiscal consolidation is large and long-lasting. Fiscal easing could critically affect debt levels, and complicate refinancing of maturing debt. Debt vulnerability will remain high for years.

IIF responds to IASB Exposure Draft on IBOR reform

The IIF has submitted a comment letter to the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) Exposure Draft Interest Rate Benchmark Reform – Pr...



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