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Weekly Insight: A Farewell Bazooka

ECB responds decisively to “protracted” Euro Area weakness—but will it prolong September’s risk rally?; Persistent trade tensions put a spotlight on aggregate financing needs in emerging markets; At close to 90% of GDP, Argentina’s government debt is well above the EM average of 50%; over half is now owned by foreigners; Boom in “sustainable debt” issuance—green is the new gold!

Sustainable Finance in Focus: Green Is The New Gold

Sustainable debt issuance is on track to reach a record high of $350 billion in 2019—up over 30% from 2018. Non-financial corporates are increasingly active in green bond markets

Global Macro Views: Retail Employment and the US Labor Market

Job losses in the retail sector have been a persistent feature of the US labor market. This downsizing has so far only offset falling market share o...

Macro Notes: Interest in Russia Remains Despite Sanctions

Portfolio flows to Russia are weakly correlated with global flows, likely due to sanctions. Despite the risk of further sanctions, government debt remains attractive to investors, as Russia stands out among EM due to exceptionally low macroeconomic vulnerabilities. In the long run, sanctions can lead to less prudent policies and reduce growth prospects. We expect discussions of Russia sanctions in the US Congress to pick up again in the fall.

Economic Views: Argentina’s External Financing Needs

We have long argued Argentina’s program is too small, given our estimates for the country’s external funding gap. The principal drivers of that gap are debt amortization and – to a large and rising extent – resident capital flight. Debt reprofiling is unlikely to change these numbers.

CEEMEA Views: Turkey - Bank Lending Set to Pick Up

Borrowing costs have fallen sharply as a result of policy changes. Lending remains subdued due to concerns over bank asset quality. Credit-fueled growth has increased private sector indebtedness. Banks remain well-capitalized and profitability is set to increase. 

September U.S. Regulatory Update

The September U.S. Regulatory Update covers the Fed’s updated stress capital buffer proposal, announcement of a real-time payment system, and September Beige Book, in addition to a preview of Congressional priorities this fall regarding banking, fintech, and anti-money laundering legislation. 

Weekly Insight: Back-to-school risk-on

Recession or new normal? Extensive U.S. yield curve inversion feeds concerns about a global growth slowdown; Policy uncertainty continues to weigh on earnings estimates; Low emerging market valuations present opportunities—particularly when combined with credible reform prospects; Mozambique’s debt restructuring--putting a lid on the “tuna bond” can; Sustainable debt issuance set to hit a new record high of over $350 billion this year

FRT Episode 47: Quantum Computing

Michael Brett (Rigetti Computing) returns to FRT, discussing the opportunities for quantum computing in financial services, market landscape for the technology, first-mover advantages, and the alignment with banks’ Cloud strategies (with Brad Carr and Conan French).

Global Macro Views: Trade Tensions and Supply Chains

There is growing concern over disruption to global supply chains, given the now multiple rounds of tariffs in the US-China trade dispute. Despite all this, China’s current account and trade surplus look robust. This resilience is partly driven by a shift in the composition of exports away from the US and towards destinations like ASEAN and the Euro zone.




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