The EM policy response to the COVID-19 shock represents a break from past crises. EM central banks eased monetary policy providing support to the domestic economy. Higher liquidity allowed governments to issue more debt in domestic bond markets. Still, fiscal support has been smaller than in DM, with most EMs tightening in 2021.

Activity has bounced back strongly following a sharp contraction in 2020Q2. The impact of political turmoil on the economy has been modest, and nonresident flows into government debt have remained stable. Uncertainty ahead of the April 2021 general election is the main risk to the growth outlook. 

Currently, the digital RMB (DCEP) is designed to be strictly cash-like with no interest payment and distributed by commercial banks to minimize the risk of disintermediation. Its impacts on banks, monetary policy, and RMB globalization depend on how the design will evolve. 
 

We have added new enhancements to our debt tracking framework for mature markets, improving the comparability of our debt estimates—especially during periods of large swings in GDP, as has been the case during the COVID-19 pandemic; Using this method, global debt is estimated to reach nearly $275 trillion in Q3 2020—some $2.5 trillion higher than our previous estimate

Despite Biden’s election, the future of the nuclear deal (JCPOA) remains uncertain due to hardliner resistance in Iran and a divided US Congress. Failure to renegotiate the deal would likely keep the economy fragile. On the other hand, Iran’s economic potential is high if U.S. sanctions are lifted. 

Our outlook for Ukraine has steadily worsened over the last twelve months. Pressure on the NBU and unwinding of anti-corruption reforms are to blame. However, Ukraine will likely manage to muddle through in the coming months. Only when macro-policies become untenable, a return to the IMF will occur.

Foreign reserves have recovered faster under COVID-19 than during the GFC. Import compression, dollar bond issuance, and XR adjustment have helped several countries strengthen their positions. Despite demanding funding needs in 2021, robust external liquidity should help avoid market dislocations. 

Global debt has piled up at an unprecedented pace since 2016, increasing by over $52tn vs a $6tn rise over 2012-16; Less bang for the buck: the capacity of debt to generate growth is diminishing, and investment remains subdued; EM governments face increasing interest burdens, notably in Turkey, India, South Africa, and the Philippines; Small businesses have seen a much bigger increase in debt-to-revenue ratios than have larger firms.