EM Growth Tracker at 3.6% 3m/3m sa ar in April. Hard data variables behind the improvement. EM Europe & Africa trackers with important gains.

The IIF is pleased to share our paper on "Bias and Ethical Implications in Machine Learning," the second paper on our three-part Thematic Series on issues related to Machine Learning (ML).

Steady Fed gives sense of balanced risks: “healthy” U.S. economic trajectory, potential inflation rise towards 2%; Frontier market debt growing quickly — total outstanding $3.2 trillion — sovereign defaults low (for now); Green and sustainability-linked lending nearly doubles in 2018 – now almost $100 billion outstanding; LIBOR transition fraught with risks — linked to contract maturity profiles, spreads to new benchmarks

Markets spent 2018 debating if Turkey and Argentina are idiosyncratic, and the same debate is playing out now given the recent market sell-off. Our daily tracking of real money flows highlights broad-based weakness, where we see the EM positioning overhang as one underlying theme.

Portfolio inflows to Emerging Markets were $38 billion in April. Equity and debt inflows reached $14 billion and $24 billion, respectively. Net capital flows into EM rose to $27.7 billion in March.

The green loan market is still a niche but growing fast: gross issuance hit $60 billion in 2018—up by 30% from 2017    

Our activity tracker slowed markedly in 2018, but has been broadly stable since September. Tariffs played a limited role in the slowdown, but are finally taking a toll on tradable sectors. Credit-intensive sectors are turning around, suggesting China’s policy stimulus still works.