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Global Macro Views: BoP Nowcasts for Systemic EMs

In a Global Macro Views in December we introduced BoP Nowcasts, "¦ which map commodity prices and capital flows into daily forecasts for the 2018 BoP.

Economic Views: Turkey - Growth Concerns Could Weigh on Fiscal Prudence

Real GDP growth was strong in 2017, fueled in part by a sizable credit impulse.' This year, the credit impulse will likely be negative.' We forecast a

China Spotlight: The Reversal of Financial Flows

China's foreign exchange reserve recovered in 2017, after a decline of $1 trillion over two and half years. This was entirely due to the reversal of f

Weekly Insight: Buzz Building

"¢'  ' Rising global bond yields rattle the "risk-on" consensus "¢'  ' Despite risks, the outlook remains constructive for EM flows-particularly under

IIF Capital Flows Tracker: A Happy Start to the New Year

Non-resident portfolio inflows to EMs rose to a 7-month high of $30 billion in January, with over half ($16.5 billion) to debt' markets. EM Asia and L

Global Macro Views: Global Trade Imbalances

Global trade tensions are on the rise, "¦ reflecting persistent current account imbalances. The US current account translates into a 10% Dollar overva

Weekly Insight: War and peace

Davos themes-will trade and tax wars threaten peaceful financial markets? Green light for big multinationals, with Euro Area in the lead Could quantit

IIF Podcast Episode 5: U.S. Political Outlook with Bruce Mehlman

In the latest episode of Huuge! Everything you need to know about big changes in Washington, Kristen Silverberg hosts Bruce Mehlman of Mehlman Castagn

Global Macro Views: How Big is the US Trade Imbalance?

Trade policy is becoming a key area of focus for the administration. We examine the adjustment in the US current account in recent years, looking t

December 2017 EM Growth Tracker

Our EM Growth Tracker slid to 5.8% (3m/3m sa ar) in December, 0.2pp lower than in November. In the previous edition we reported steady growth since Ju
 

 

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