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LatAm Views – Commodity Exporters' Contrasting Fortunes

We analyze external adjustment in Colombia, Peru, and Chile, commodity exporters with sound macro policy frameworks, in the aftermath of the decline in commodity prices. Despite real depreciation, exports have improved only modestly, with most of the adjustment due to significant import compression. 

ASEAN Economic Views: Indonesia -- Investment Constraints

Strong investment growth is a prerequisite for Indonesia to grow faster than 6% per annum. The global commodity cycle, competitive external investment environment, and limited policy stimulus are potential headwinds to a meaningful pick-up in investment. 

Climate-related Financial Disclosures: Examples of Leading Practices in TCFD Reporting by Financial Firms

This report, produced under the auspices of the IIF SFWG, aims to provide insight on current “leading practices” among financial firms in implementing TCFD recommendations, providing a snapshot of “what good disclosure looks like.” These examples should help prompt discussion within the industry and inform dialogue with regulators and supervisors on how to achieve the goals of the TCFD, particularly on appropriate pricing of climate-related risks and financial stability.

Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA): Economic Relationships in Flux 

CCA countries have diversified their economic linkages. The EEU and the Belt Road initiative serve as channels for Russia and China to exert influence. While Russia remains a key partner with respect to trade, labor markets and FDI in some countries, China's prominence is increasing markedly.

CEEMEA Views: Ukraine - Foreign Investor Interest is Picking Up

Robust growth has returned, driven by consumption. Non-resident inflows have led the Hryvnia to appreciate. A new IMF program is expected by the end of the year. The key risk to the outlook is potential for policy inaction. Public debt appears sustainable, assuming FX stability.

Weekly Insight: Carousel of worries

Ballooning universe of negative-yielding debt suggests little confidence that further policy easing will help; Lower borrowing costs will help high-debt mature economies—to a point; Negative rates and slowing growth—headwinds for bank profitability; We’ll take a late-summer break next week—next Weekly Insight will be on September 5

Machine Learning in Credit Risk: 2nd Edition Summary Report

Following on from the IIF’s 2018 Machine Learning in Credit Risk survey, our 2nd Edition (2019) survey tracks industry progress in the adoption and implementation of these technologies.

Global Macro Views: Argentina's Sudden Stop

The sharp drop in the Peso reflects another BoP “sudden stop,” which is likely to carry far-reaching consequences for the economy. The IMF forecast of -1.3% growth in 2019 assumes a recovery in H2, but that is now unlikely and a number at or below -2.5% is conceivable. As a counterpart to this, current account adjustment will accelerate, with the Peso now significantly undervalued in our fair value model.

Economic Views: Capital Flows and Argentina’s Elections

Resident outflows were a source of pressure in 2018. They are unlikely to abate as the election approaches since Argentina’s electoral cycles often prompt outflows. We are far from the outflows seen in the 2001 crisis, but the external funding picture will remain tough given limited resources left under the IMF program.

Egypt: Resilient Against External Headwinds, But Challenges Remain

Egypt has successfully completed the 3-year EFF arrangement with the IMF. Growth has accelerated, unemployment has decreased, the twin deficits have narrowed, core inflation has fallen, and the public debt ratio has started to decline.




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