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Economic Views: Argentina’s External Financing Gap

Funding will be tight as the election approaches, mostly due to persistent resident capital flight. We see reserve losses even in upside scenarios that may continue after the election takes place. Argentina will likely need extended IMF support.

Weekly Insight: Trouble brewing

Slump in S&P sales momentum suggests boost from tax cuts is fading fast; Weaker U.S. loan demand as delinquencies rise; sharp drop in leveraged loan, cov-lite issuance; Bank profitability remains under pressure, notably in Europe, Japan; U.S. banks reliant on trading, fee income; Banks’ exposure to domestic sovereign risk still an issue in several advanced economies; insurers also exposed; Venezuela: opposition team signals tough line on creditors

Global Macro Views: Campaign against Nonsense Output Gaps (CANOO)

Small output gap estimates for the Euro periphery make little sense, because they embed an assumption of negative trend growth post-2008. We derive Euro periphery output gaps which are consistent with Phillips curve evidence and help explain why core inflation has remained so low on the periphery.

Georgia: Charting a Strong Course

Georgia has shown impressive resilience during the period of an economic slowdown in the region. The government’s Four Point Plan is expected to remove structural bottlenecks and support strong growth. However, the economy remains vulnerable to regional developments and external shocks.

IIF U.S. Regulatory Update - May 2019

Our U.S. Regulatory Update covers the Federal Reserve’s proposals on FBO requirements, FSOC’s proposed changes to nonbank designations, the NAIC International Forum, and Capitol Hill updates, among other topics. 

IIF Insurance Update - May 2019

The May edition of the Insurance Update provides targeted updates on IIF insurance activities and events, and highlights relevant IIF publications or related regulatory developments in other fields.

FRT 35: Machine Learning in AML

Sarah Runge, Global Head of Financial Crime Compliance Regulatory Strategy for Credit Suisse, joins us on this week’s episode of FRT to discuss the benefits and challenges of applying Machine Learning in Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Terrorism Financing (AML/CTF).

Economic Views: India’s Shadow Bank Credit Shock

Indian shadow banks were under pressure in 2018. They did not experience a severe funding crunch, but remain under continued pressure to deleverage. In response, shadow banks are lending a lot less, affecting overall credit supply and growth negatively.

Lebanon: Time to Establish Credibility

Lebanon once again is at a crossroads. Painful measures are needed in difficult situations, and achieving fiscal sustainability, rebuilding confidence, and preserving the peg to the dollar inevitably will re-quire strong adjustment.

Weekly Insight: Vertigo

Trade and geopolitical tensions drive investors to safe havens as market risks are reassessed; Greater sensitivity to political news flow reflects growing dominance of passive investing, high-frequency trading; New Principles for Debt Transparency aim to help address debt-related vulnerabilities in low-income countries; Green asset-backed securities have surged in popularity in recent years, but are still a niche product




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