U.S.-China tariff tantrum highlights risks for corporate earnings; Global IPO activity slowing as debt financing prevails—except in the U.S. where tech offerings steam ahead; At around 15% of GDP, the USD debt of non-bank borrowers is now as high in mature markets (ex-U.S.) as for emerging markets—and a risk in both cases; Innovative sustainability-linked loans gain traction; ESG bond/loan issuance set to surpass $300bn in 2019

We unveiled a new EM positioning database late last year. Here we provide a further breakdown into equities and bonds, which allow us to zero in on the biggest EM positioning overhangs. The largest overhang, South Africa, is due to both in equal measure.

Oversupply and weak demand have weighed on real estate prices since 2014. Vulnerability stems from an unrealistic economic model amplified by adverse external factors, with detrimental effects to growth and financial stability. However, policy responses may slow the pace of future price declines.

Current account deficits in Frontier LatAm remain wide and are largely dependent on remittances and oil prices. While high FDI helps cover external financing needs, debt buildups have been significant in some countries, increasing external vulnerability amid limited buffers.

Colombia’s current account deficit was wide in 2018, despite depreciation since the oil price shock of 2014-15. We think deficits are largely driven by structural forces.Colombia’s external vulnerability will likely remain.

EM Growth Tracker at 3.6% 3m/3m sa ar in April. Hard data variables behind the improvement. EM Europe & Africa trackers with important gains.

The IIF is pleased to share our paper on "Bias and Ethical Implications in Machine Learning," the second paper on our three-part Thematic Series on issues related to Machine Learning (ML).