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Machine Learning Recommendations for Policymakers 

This paper articulates how policymakers and supervisors can assist in ensuring safe machine learning innovation, harnessing the benefits of these new technologies while minimizing and mitigating risks.

Macro Notes: Sanctions Unlikely to Stop Nord Stream 2

Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream will change gas transit in Europe, allowing Russian gas to reach Western Europe while bypassing Ukraine. Transit through Ukrainian pipelines could decrease as much as 80%, widening the current account deficit and increasing financing needs. Sanctions on both pipeline projects are being discussed in Congress.

Economic Views: Argentina’s Public Financing Needs

Public financing needs are high by EM standards, ... and projected to remain so for an extended period. Intra-public sector debt holdings are sign...

Weekly Insight: Keep calm and repo on

USD funding markets under scrutiny—liquidity squeeze prompts Fed cash injection and IOER cut; Growing reliance on the USD in funding markets and international trade leaves other countries vulnerable to spillovers; USD-denominated debt outside the USD rises to almost $12 trillion in Q1 2019; Climate-related capital flows to emerging markets on track to exceed $80 billion in 2019—but private flows still small; Carbon pricing initiatives are on the rise, but there’s scope for much more progress  
 

IIF September Global Regulatory Update 

The September 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on the Financial Stability Board along with current work streams in Regulatory Capital, Recovery and Resolution, Cyber Security, Digital Finance, Sustainable Finance, Insurance and upcoming events. 

CEEMEA Views: Turkey - Difficult Trade-Off: Growth vs. Imbalances 

Bank lending and accommodative policies helped output recover in 2019H1,but a continued fall in investment limits the pace of real GDP growth. TRY depreciation has led the current account to shift to a surplus, and FX reserves appear sufficiently large to cover external debt repayments. 

GMV: The Constructive Case for Global Growth and Risk Assets

Markets have been anxious about the global growth outlook for some time, with weak manufacturing data interacting with trade tensions to dim sentiment. Amid the gloom, we detect early signs that manufacturing may have troughed, and that adverse spillover to investment, important for future growth, is limited. Combining this growth picture with material easing from key central banks, paints a relatively constructive backdrop for risk assets, including EM FX.

Macro Notes: Nigeria: Relying on Costly Short-Term Inflows

Nigeria is increasingly reliant on expensive “hot money” flows. Non-residents are flocking to central bank auctions of CBN bills. Nigeria leads the region in Eurobond issuance, at a high cost. With non-oil revenue below 4% of GDP, risk of crowding out is high. Weak oil production and low prices weigh on the current account.

Oil Market Shock: Reminder of Regional Tensions

Recent attacks on Saudi oil facilities led to the worst supply disruption in last 50 years. Aramco’s full return to normal crude oil production may take more than a few weeks. The impact on the Saudi economy includes a small contraction in overall real GDP and a wider fiscal deficit.

Economic Views: External Financing Risk in Colombia

Colombia’s current account deficit is still widening, despite depreciation since the oil price shock of 2014-15. High FDI mitigates financing risk to some extent, but external funding needs are high relative to reserves. Foreign bond holdings rose fast compared to GDP, but aren’t unusually high relative to bond index weights.

 

 

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