Policy dissonance has been a key factor in market volatility, yield curve flattening; Growing concern about the longer-term implications of a U.S. government shutdown; If bank stocks are a bellwether, signals are not reassuring; China deleveraging on the back burner; rising refinancing risk for U.S. corporates

Not much has changed in the macro landscape, but markets have shifted to price an end to the hiking cycle. In effect, the Fed has become a casualty of the trade war, and further tightening (which we expect) is now harder.

Global debt has grown by over 12% (or $27 trillion) since 2016, reaching $244 trillion (318% of GDP) in Q3 2018.

Turkey and Argentina saw sharp depreciations in 2018, that erased substantial real exchange rate overvaluations. We assess the BoP impact in 2019 using our Nowcast.

Portfolio inflows to EMs were $3.1 bn in December. Equity and debt flows softened to $2.9 bn and $0.2 bn, respectively. Net capital flows remained in negative territory in November.

Dichotomy between still-strong growth and market warning signals leaves investors scrambling; Upward pressure on overnight rates could trigger liquidity shortages, higher volatility in money markets; Lowest tier of investment grade now accounts for 42% of the U.S. corporate debt universe, up from 30% in 2008; Central bank reserve managers shift away from USD in 2018

We see global growth worries as overblown. US data are catching down with elsewhere, but that was inevitable and to be expected, a normal sign of global business cycle swings. We lower our growth forecasts modestly, but continue to see a solid overall picture.