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2018: Ten Big Questions

At this time last year we warned that political uncertainty had risen to remarkably high levels. Now the questions may have changed, but risks remain.

Economic Views: Oman - Fiscal Restraint is Needed

While narrowing, we expect the fiscal deficit to remain large at 9.3% of GDP in 2018. Pressure on credit ratings will increase as public debt surpasse

Economic Views: Russia - Who Votes for Putin?

The March presidential election will return President Putin for his fourth term. Putin leads polls with preferences at around 70%, other candidates si

IIF Insurance Update - January 2018

This newsletter is designed to provide a targeted monthly update on IIF insurance activities and events, and highlight some relevant IIF publications

Iran: Economic Prospects on the Edge

Recent protests have been fueled by unmet economic, social, and political expectations While the protests have ebbed in recent days, their underlying

Iraq: Glimmer of Light at the End of the Tunnel

Iraq's post-war infrastructure rebuilding will help propel the economy's recovery. The recent oil price rise has alleviated some of Iraq's immediate f

China Spotlight: Pigs Won't Fly, yet CPI Can Climb Higher

Bottom-up analysis shows that CPI in 2018 will be moderately higher, "¦ "¦driven by food, residence and probably also services.' Thus, we think the ch

January 2018 Capital Markets Monitor: Potential Risks on our 2018 Radar Screen

Against the backdrop of a persistent hunt for yield, global leveraged loan issuance hit a record high of over $1.7 trillion in 2017-50% higher than it

Global Macro Views: Who Let the FROGs Out?

Earlier this week we introduced the concept of FROGs , where the abbreviation stands for F rivolously R elated O utput G aps. This is a gap that is

Economic Views: Tunisia - A Winter of Discontent

The economic situation has deteriorated since the Arab Spring in 2011. Fiscal consolidation, continual high unemployment, and rising inflation have tr


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