Publications

2018: Ten Big Questions

January 18, 2018

At this time last year we warned that political uncertainty had risen to remarkably high levels. Now the questions may have changed, but risks remain.

Economic Views: Oman - Fiscal Restraint is Needed

January 18, 2018

While narrowing, we expect the fiscal deficit to remain large at 9.3% of GDP in 2018. Pressure on credit ratings will increase as public debt surpasse

Economic Views: Russia - Who Votes for Putin?

January 18, 2018

The March presidential election will return President Putin for his fourth term. Putin leads polls with preferences at around 70%, other candidates si

IIF Insurance Update - January 2018

January 18, 2018

This newsletter is designed to provide a targeted monthly update on IIF insurance activities and events, and highlight some relevant IIF publications

Iran: Economic Prospects on the Edge

January 17, 2018

Recent protests have been fueled by unmet economic, social, and political expectations While the protests have ebbed in recent days, their underlying

Iraq: Glimmer of Light at the End of the Tunnel

January 17, 2018

Iraq's post-war infrastructure rebuilding will help propel the economy's recovery. The recent oil price rise has alleviated some of Iraq's immediate f

China Spotlight: Pigs Won't Fly, yet CPI Can Climb Higher

January 17, 2018

Bottom-up analysis shows that CPI in 2018 will be moderately higher, "¦ "¦driven by food, residence and probably also services.' Thus, we think the ch

January 2018 Capital Markets Monitor: Potential Risks on our 2018 Radar Screen

January 16, 2018

Against the backdrop of a persistent hunt for yield, global leveraged loan issuance hit a record high of over $1.7 trillion in 2017-50% higher than it

Global Macro Views: Who Let the FROGs Out?

January 11, 2018

Earlier this week we introduced the concept of FROGs , where the abbreviation stands for F rivolously R elated O utput G aps. This is a gap that is

Economic Views: Tunisia - A Winter of Discontent

January 11, 2018

The economic situation has deteriorated since the Arab Spring in 2011. Fiscal consolidation, continual high unemployment, and rising inflation have tr

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