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Global Macro Views: The Fed Restarts the Wall of Money to EM

The Fed is likely to reignite a wall of money to emerging markets, and our high frequency tracking of flows already shows a sharp spike. As the hunt for yield restarts, positioning in EM is a central question. South Africa is most over-, Brazil and Russia most under-positioned.

January 2019 EM Growth Tracker

EM Growth Tracker at 4.1% 3m/3m sa ar in January. Uptick driven by improvement across all major indicators. Trade volumes and industrial production still weakening. EM Asia and Latam rebound, EM Europe & Africa still contracting.

PRA Consultation - Managing the Financial Risks from Climate Change

The IIF has submitted the response letter to the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) Consultation Paper - Enhancing banks’ and insurers’ approaches to managing the financial risks from climate change.

Economic Views: Are Tariffs on China Working?

US imports from China continue to grow despite tariffs. We examine whether this means tariffs are ineffective, creating value, volume, and price series by tariff group.

Lebanon: Time to Act

A soft exit out of the debt overhang is possible and the authorities now recognize the urgency of committing to meaningful and widespread reforms to improve long-term fiscal sustainability and rebuild confidence. However, the scope of credible reforms for 2019 remains unclear.

IIF Capital Flows Tracker: Capital Flows to EM Rebound

Portfolio inflows to EMs were $51.1 billion in January, the highest in 12 months. Equity and debt inflows increased to $33 billion and $18 billion, respectively. Net capital flows improved but remained in negative territory in December.

Weekly Insight: Patience Please

Fed flexibility on balance sheet normalization could have far-reaching consequences; Tech stock valuations suggest fears that trade war is morphing into tech war; A more dovish Fed spells respite for highly indebted EM borrowers; Unprecedented growth in green syndicated lending; Sharply higher debt in vulnerable low-income countries puts sustainable development goals at risk 

FRT Episode 23: Basel Committee Secretary General Bill Coen

Basel Committee for Banking Supervision (BCBS) Secretary General Bill Coen joins FRT. Bill discusses the Committee’s workplan for 2019, as well ...

Global Macro Views: A Weak Rebound in Flows to EM

Our high frequency trackers show a substantial pick-up in flows, though the underlying picture is weaker than headline numbers suggest. The rebound is concentrated in China, with Mexico and Indonesia also up, while the flow picture to India, South Africa, Turkey and Thailand is weak, even after large outflows during the emerging markets sell-off last year.

Crypto Course Correction

The crypto industry moves into the new year reshaped by a tumultuous 2018. Despite ongoing regulatory and technical challenges, the underlying technology and crypto-based applications continue to move slowly towards mainstream adoption, as evidenced by recent private and official sector activity.




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