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FRT Episode 41: IIF Machine Learning Roundtable

The IIF 2nd Machine Learning Roundtable was held in Frankfurt on June 19 hosted by Commerzbank, and speakers Kerem Tomak (Commerzbank), and Farhaad Amod (Nedbank) join us to share their top takeaways (with Brad Carr, Natalia Bailey, and Adrien Delle Case).

Economic Views: The Drivers of EM Current Accounts

We scan current accounts from a savings-investment angle, analyzing the contributions of public and private imbalances. Argentina’s external imbalances are mostly fiscal in nature, while Turkey’s are driven by a credit-dependent private sector. South Africa and Colombia run twin fiscal and external deficits.

IIF Capital Flows Tracker: Flows to EM Recover

Portfolio flows to Emerging Markets were $40.8 bn in June, the highest level in 5 months. Our tracking shows a surge in flows, driven by a strong recovery in Chinese equities. Equity and debt flows were $12.6 billion and $28.2 billion, respectively. Net capital flows into EM were -$18.6 billion in May.

CEEMEA Views: EU Structural Funds Boost Growth in CEE

EU structural funds have boosted growth in Eastern Europe, allowing for strong income convergence with the rest of the EU. Cuts in the 2021-27 EU budget will lead to smaller contributions, but a sudden slowdown is unlikely, and convergence will continue.

IIF Insurance Update - June 2019

The June edition of the Insurance Update provides targeted updates on IIF insurance activities and events, and highlights relevant IIF publications or related regulatory developments in other fields. 

Weekly Insight: Hedging G20 bets

Negative-yielding debt hits a fresh record high of over $13 trillion; 75% of that is safe-haven government bonds; Low borrowing costs could provide some breathing room for EMs with high government financing needs; Climate change risks aren’t just domestic: over $29 trillion of G20 (mostly G7) cross-border investments are at risk. With awareness of these risks on the rise, our Green Flows Tracker shows net inflows of $2bn in Q2 (and record inflows for June); Insurer perspectives on LIBOR transition: the regulatory framework for EU insurers still requires a LIBOR-based term structure as the discount rate for insurance obligations.  

Leveraging Technologies to Improve the Quality and Maximize the Productivity of Agent Models

This brief examines the role of technological innovation as a potential driver for improving the quality and maximizing the productivity of agent models through in-depth interviews with industry experts and senior bank officers, and supplemented by a review of the literature.

Proposed tailoring of enhanced prudential standards for FBOs in the US

In our letter we emphasize the importance and contribution of FBOs to the US financial system and we highlight how the scale of the FBO operations has declined significantly since the initial FBO Rules.

Global Macro Views: The EM Capital Flow Picture ahead of the G20

Real money flows into EM stocks and bonds have surged recently, perhaps in anticipation of a benign outcome to China-US trade talks. Our daily tracking estimates flows into non-China EM at $23 bn in Q2. Our measure of China’s “core” current account surplus remains healthy, but additional US tariffs could tip the balance and cause RMB to fall.

Kuwait MSCI upgrade: Positive signal, but no time for complacency

Addition to the MSCI EM Index would acknowledge capital markets reform and send a positive signal to investors. We expect foreign inflows of $1.8 billion from passive investors and up to $7 billion from active investors in 2020-2022.




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