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BoP Nowcast

The IIF’s BoP Nowcast is our innovative approach to forecasting the current account balances of systemic emerging markets (Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey). What differentiates it from other methodologies is the use of spot prices for major commodities. We combine such prices with assumptions about commodity export and import volumes, as well as our country economists’ forecast regarding non-commodity trade, services, income, and transfers. As a result, the Nowcast responds instantaneously to commodity price fluctuations, which have proven to be a major factor impacting emerging markets’ external balances. Over the course of a given year, the combination of this model with official balance of payments data enables us to refine our forecast values as the year progresses. For questions, please send an email to bhilgenstock@iif.com.

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IIF Headquarters
1333 H St NW, Suite 800E
Washington, DC 20005-4770
Tel: +1 202 857-3600
Fax: +1 202 775-1430
Email: info@iif.com

IIF Middle East and Africa
Regional Office
DIFC, The Gate Building,
Level 15
P.O. Box 121208
Dubai, United Arab
Emirates
Tel: +971 4401 9651

IIF Asia Pacific
Regional Office - Beijing
Winland International Finance Centre
Suite F920, 9F
No.7 Jinrong Avenue
Xicheng District, Beijing
100032, PRC
Tel: +86 10 5836 9100
Fax: +86 10 5836 9300

IIF Asia Pacific
Regional Office - Singapore
50 Raffles Place
#22-06 Singapore Land
Tower
Singapore 048623
Tel: +65 6592 5089

IIF European
Representative Office
Square de Meeûs 23
14th Floor
1000 Brussels
Belgium
Tel: +32 2 430 37 08