The IIF Emerging Market Growth Tracker provides a timely estimate of EMs’ real GDP growth. Our tracker is constructed by modelling 41 macroeconomic indicators across EMs. The IIF Growth Tracker is published the second week of the month.
Our EM Growth Tracker came in at 3.5% (3m/3m SAAR) in June, 0.3pp lower than the month prior. The deterioration in our tracker was mainly driven by weaker hard data (explaining more than half of the decline) but exacerbated by business surveys and financial variables.
EM Growth Tracker at 3.8% 3m/3m SAAR in May. Business and financial conditions drag growth down. Imports appear to have bottomed out, improving trade.
EM Growth Tracker at 3.6% 3m/3m sa ar in April. Hard data variables behind the improvement. EM Europe & Africa trackers with important gains.
EM Growth Tracker at 3.2% 3m/3m sa ar in March. Business surveys suggest a moderate recovery ahead. Financial variables and hard data support the uptick. EM Europe & Africa trackers with important gains.
EM Growth Tracker at 2.8% 3m/3m sa ar in February. Strong improvements in financial variables insufficient to halt decline. Trade volumes and industrial production still weakening. EM Asia and Latam weaken, EM Europe & Africa with marginal gains.
EM Growth Tracker at 4.1% 3m/3m sa ar in January. Uptick driven by improvement across all major indicators. Trade volumes and industrial production still weakening. EM Asia and Latam rebound, EM Europe & Africa still contracting.
EM Growth Tracker at 3.4% 3m/3m sa ar in December. Decline driven by hard data and business sentiment. Trade volumes and industrial production weakening. All regional trackers slowing towards the end of 2018.
EM Growth Tracker at 3.9% 3m/3m sa ar in November. Decline driven by hard data but offset by improved corporate sentiment. Trade volumes improve, but internal demand is still weak. LatAm and EM Asia trackers decline.