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EM FX Fair Value
EM FX Fair Value
Recent Publications
GMV: The Drivers of our Turkish Lira Fair Value
August 13, 2020
We have been getting many questions on our Turkish Lira fair value. Many assume our fair value estimate will automatically keep weakening. That is...
GMV: Is the Dollar Entering a Secular Decline?
August 6, 2020
Markets are debating whether the Dollar is entering a secular decline. We provide an overview of the main drivers of the Dollar in recent years. T...
GMV: Ecuador and Ukraine Exchange Rate Valuation
July 23, 2020
Our exchange rate fair value model rarely sends big overvaluation signals. It flagged Turkey and Argentina in early 2018 and South Africa in late 20...
GMV: Egypt and Pakistan Exchange Rate Valuation
July 9, 2020
Our exchange rate fair value model rarely sends big overvaluation signals. It flagged Turkey and Argentina in early 2018 and South Africa in late 20...
GMV: Exchange Rate Valuations after the Storm
July 2, 2020
The COVID-19 shock is reshaping the EM landscape dramatically. Current account deficits have turned to surplus in many places, ... as imports comp...
GMV: The Growing Case for Flexible EM Exchange Rates
June 4, 2020
The COVID-19 shock has seen many EMs drop their “fear of floating,” ... with many currencies weakening at unprecedented speed and severi...
GMV: Exchange Rate Valuations in the COVID-19 Shock
April 7, 2020
Emerging market currencies have experienced very large depreciations. Ordinarily our exchange rate models would be signaling large undervaluations. ...
GMV: Current Account Deficit Financing in EM
December 12, 2019
We scan key current account deficit countries across emerging markets, ... looking at where the composition of financing is a source of vulnerabilit...
GMV: Large Exchange Rate Misalignments in the G10
November 25, 2019
Last week we updated our EM exchange rate fair value estimates. Large depreciations in recent years corrected sizeable overvaluations, ... s...
GMV: Is the Dollar Overshooting versus EM Currencies?
November 21, 2019
The Dollar has risen to a record high versus EM currencies. We investigate if this Dollar strength is the beginning of a trend, ... or if va...
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