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EM Vulnerability
EM Vulnerability
Recent Publications
Macro Focus: EM Vulnerability to Russia-Ukraine Conflict
March 10, 2022
We update our heatmap of emerging market vulnerabilities, … in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions. There is ...
Global Macro Views: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and EM
March 10, 2022
Sanctions have drastically tightened Russia’s financial conditions. We forecast a very deep recession of -15 percent GDP growth in 2022, &hell...
Global Macro Views: A Watershed for Politics and Markets
March 3, 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a watershed moment for Europe. It is also a turning point for markets, which are not yet pricing this. ...
Global Macro Views: Where is Rising Inflation Most Broad-Based?
February 17, 2022
We last week began a new GMV series on the rise in global inflation. Central banks are struggling to disentangle if this is a broad-based rise, &hel...
Global Macro Views: The Broad-Based Rise in Global Inflation
February 10, 2022
The ferocity of the global inflation rebound has come as a surprise. Central banks are struggling to disentangle if this is a broad-based rise, &hel...
Global Macro Views: The Euro Zone COVID Recovery
February 3, 2022
Last week we reviewed the global recovery from COVID, … noting that that the US has outperformed the rest of the world, … with...
Global Macro Views: The Global COVID Recovery
January 27, 2022
The US has made a remarkable recovery from COVID, … which is mainly a reflection of very aggressive fiscal stimulus. We survey the CO...
Global Macro Views: More on FX Misalignments in 2022
January 20, 2022
We last week published our updated EM exchange rate misalignments. Many of our readers focused on our undervaluation call for China’s RMB, &he...
Global Macro Views: A Sudden Stop in EM Inflows
December 2, 2021
Early this year we warned about a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum, … with longer-term US yields rising sharply and weighing on emerging mark...
Global Macro Views: Turkish Lira Weakness
November 25, 2021
The scale of recent Turkish Lira depreciation rivals the 2018 sudden stop. Back in 2018, US sanctions were the proximate cause of the Turkish Lira s...
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