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Recent Publications
Global Macro Views: Update on the Data Tantrum
July 1, 2021
Earlier this year we coined the term “data tantrum,” ... to describe the unprecedented reopening of the US economy, ... which we thoug...
Global Macro Views: The US Yield Conundrum
June 17, 2021
We have devoted recent pieces to the low level of long-term US yields, … a puzzle that had approached the Greenspan “conundrum” o...
Global Macro Views: Supply chain disruptions continue to build
June 10, 2021
We recently concluded a series of pieces on supply chain disruptions, … looking at their fall-out on the Fed’s preferred core PCE infla...
Global Macro Views: Why are US Treasury Yields stuck?
June 3, 2021
The 10-year Treasury yield has been near 1.6 percent for two months, … even as progress on vaccinations is rapid and activity is rebounding s...
Global Macro Views: Who is buying US Treasury Debt?
May 27, 2021
The 10-year Treasury yield has been near 1.6 percent for two months, … even as progress on vaccinations is rapid and activity is rebounding s...
Global Macro Views: Supply Disruptions, Inflation and the Fed
May 20, 2021
We have been documenting unprecedented supply chain disruptions, … which stand out for their severity and for their increasingly global dispe...
Global Macro Views: The Global Spread of Supply Chain Disruptions
May 13, 2021
We have been documenting severe supply chain disruptions in US manufacturing, … with supplier delivery times almost as stretched as in Japan ...
Global Macro Views: Revising our Turkish Lira Fair Value
May 6, 2021
We are revising our Turkish Lira fair value to $/TRY 9.50. This decision is driven by balance of payments fundamentals, … whereby the curre...
Global Macro Views: Supply Disruptions and Inflation
April 22, 2021
We last week began a series on global supply disruptions, … which showed that rising delivery times in global manufacturing, … rival...
Global Macro Views: Global Supply Disruptions
April 15, 2021
Disruptions to the global manufacturing supply chain are temporary, … and are likely to fade as the US and other economies continue to reopen...
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