EM Vulnerability

Recent Publications

Global Macro Views: The 2021 US Data Tantrum

As vaccinations progress and the US economy reopens, ... economic data are starting to come in that look very strong. This is the flip-side of wea...

Global Macro Views: Another Sudden Stop in Turkey

Turkey has suffered three BoP sudden stops in recent years. The Lira almost fully recovered after the August 2018 sudden stop, … because a ...

Global Macro Views: Macro Rebalancing in Turkey

February 18, 2021

There was a dramatic credit expansion in Turkey last year, … which drove current account deficit widening and reserve losses. This underlyi...

Global Macro Views: Last Lessons from 2020

December 24, 2020

The BoJ and ECB have a problem in common. Both have been out-eased by the Federal Reserve. This repeats the policy mistake of the BoJ in 2008/9. ...

Global Macro Views: More Lessons from 2020

December 21, 2020

The OPEC meeting in early March was a big turning point for markets in 2020. Failure to agree production cuts in the face of global recession sent o...

Global Macro Views: Lessons from 2020

December 11, 2020

This year saw an unprecedented shock to global demand and markets. We look back at 2020 to highlight what we think are the key take-aways, … ...

GMV: Devaluations and Export Volumes

December 3, 2020

We’ve been writing about beneficial effects from currency devaluations, ... which – when they are large – help rebalance current a...

GMV: The Not So Dominant Currency Paradigm

November 12, 2020

The export channel from devaluation remains a positive force for EM one we think is underappreciated at the current juncture.

GMV: Large Devaluations in EM

November 5, 2020

Many emerging market currencies have fallen sharply this year, … after trend-depreciating in real terms for many years prior to 2020. We sc...

GMV: EM Trade Volumes and COVID-19

October 29, 2020

Many EM currencies have weakened sharply this year, … but the devaluation trend substantially predates COVID-19. Depreciations are large ev...

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