Not much has changed in the macro landscape, but markets have shifted to price an end to the hiking cycle. In effect, the Fed has become a casualty of the trade war, and further tightening (which we expect) is now harder.

Waiting for higher wage inflation has been like watching paint dry. That is about to change with October data on average hourly earnings. A large base

Many emerging markets have sold off sharply this year, and a hawkish shift from the Fed could add fuel to the fire. We examine Fed policy through t

Why has there not been a more pronounced rise in inflation, "¦ given that standard indicators of slack point to a tight economy? One possibility is th

Market pricing remains far below the "dots" in 2019 and 2020, reflecting in part a perception that the Fed is a dovish institution. We examine past

The mapping from wider fiscal deficits to the current account has been imperfect, reflecting offsetting moves in other sectors of the economy and a

One month ago, average hourly earnings surprised to the upside, sparking anxiety that the US economy may - finally - be starting to overheat. We ar

Last year we published a series of reports on red versus blue states, "¦ which showed that red state labor markets are materially lagging blue ones. W

Longer-term Treasury yields have risen sharply year-to-date. A key question for markets is whether the sell-off will continue. We examine the various

Trade policy is becoming a key area of focus for the administration. We examine the adjustment in the US current account in recent years, looking t