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Phillips Curve
Phillips Curve
Recent Publications
Global Macro Views: Taper Tantrum Risk in 2021
January 14, 2021
The global economy feels like back in 2010 after the Great Recession. Back then, the big central banks had eased and were locking in “low-for-...
GMV: The G-3 Struggle to Reflate
October 1, 2020
The COVID-19 shock means output gaps are substantial everywhere. As a result, all major economies are struggling to reflate simultaneously. Last w...
GMV: G-3 Currency Tensions
September 24, 2020
Recent ECB comments on the Euro sparked consternation, ... and have been likened to verbal intervention at a difficult time. The reality is that &...
GMV: The YCC Straitjacket and the BoJ
September 17, 2020
The Bank of Japan adopted Yield Curve Control (YCC) in September 2016. At the time, YCC was something of a “Hail Mary” to get reflation ...
GMV: The Fed Shift to Average Inflation Targeting
September 3, 2020
The Fed’s recent shift to average inflation targeting, ... and the related de-emphasis of NAIRU and output gaps, ... are a material step for...
GMV: COVID-19 and the Missing Inflation Puzzle
July 30, 2020
The years leading up to COVID-19 saw persistently low inflation, ... something that came to be called by some the “missing inflation puzzle.&r...
GMV: COVID-19 and the US Labor Market
June 25, 2020
Unlike previous recessions, the COVID-19 shock hit services employment especially hard. Many jobs that have been lost are in services like retail, e...
GMV: Painful and Slow US Labor Market Recovery
June 11, 2020
Last week brought a surprise drop in the unemployment rate, … but sadly the outlook is for a slow and painful labor market recovery. Unlike...
GMV: The Crisis in Prime-Age Male Employment
February 13, 2020
Labor markets have registered substantial recoveries in recent years, ... but the headline numbers are flattered by rising female participation rate...
GMV: How Much Labor Market Slack Remains?
January 16, 2020
The US unemployment rate has fallen to historically low levels, ... even as there is little indication that underlying inflation is picking up. ...
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