Our activity tracker slowed markedly in 2018, but has been broadly stable since September. Tariffs played a limited role in the slowdown, but are finally taking a toll on tradable sectors. Credit-intensive sectors are turning around, suggesting China’s policy stimulus still works.
The IIF released a collection of papers analyzing the state of the Chinese economy. This research coincides with the IIF’s 2019 China Roundtable, held on the margins of the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings.
China’s imports of US goods fell sharply last year, in response to new US tariffs on Chinese goods. We attribute the decline to a retaliatory 25% tariff, but data suggest non-tariff measures were also used. China substituted certain US imports markedly, in favor of countries like Russia and Brazil.
US imports from China continue to grow despite tariffs. We examine whether this means tariffs are ineffective, creating value, volume, and price series by tariff group.
In our last edition of Sticky Notes in 2018, we look at President Xi's reform anniversary speech, Venezuela's future, NAFTA termination, oil markets, and a potential U.S. government shutdown.
Activity in China is cooling more than GDP suggests, but exports are not the main driver of the slowdown. Tariffs will eventually have an impact on the economy, that we quantify in a simple model of import demand. Growth would fall modestly in a détente scenario, but could drop by 0.5-1pp if trade tensions escalate.
In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at oil markets ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, consumer privacy laws, U.S.-China trade talks, and end-of-year book recommendations.
In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at takeaways from the U.S. mid-term elections, the latest U.S.-China trade talks, Brazil in the wake of a newly elected government, and U.S. soybean exports.
China's current account has traditionally registered large surpluses, but has swung into deficit this year based on data from Q1 through Q3, adding to the case that the RMB could be overvalued and needs to depreciate.
Just as in 2015, our activity tracker points to a slowdown, "¦ even though official GDP figures remain broadly stable. We compare the current slowdown