At this time last year we warned that political uncertainty had risen to remarkably high levels. Now the questions may have changed, but risks remain.
Our model suggests that a USD10 pb oil price increase boosts the current account by USD15 billion.' The current level of oil prices, if maintained, wo
Increasing share of non-residents makes the sovereign bond market more sensitive to investors' sentiment. A lower yield curve and abundant domestic li
Phillips curve estimation suggests that supply-side effects explained the core inflation decline. A stronger ruble contributed to lower inflation and
The current account surplus will likely remain below $40 billion this year, despite oil prices rising 20% from 2016. The import substitution policy, p
Long-awaited economic strategy plan limits its focus to the fiscal agenda. Kudrin argues that Russia must increase "productive" spending and limit the
The US extended existing sanctions on Russia, and imposed new ones, in August, affecting oil, gas, railway, and banking sectors, further limiting acce
The central bank may decide to wait on another interest rate cut until later this year, as weaker ruble feeds into inflation expectations and will lik