Current account deficits in Frontier LatAm are wide by EM standards, largely due to energy trade imbalances, but lower oil prices since 2014 have helped ease financing gaps. Despite global headwinds and regional tensions, we project CA deficits to stay contained in 2019-20, broadly financed by FDI. 

Pension reform has improved Brazil’s growth prospects amid an anemic recovery.

We assess the impact of potential policy surprises, using our BoP Nowcast and positioning toolkits. Low current account deficits pose limited risk, but in Mexico heavier positioning than in Brazil could amplify the impact of negative policy surprises.

Slack in Brazil remains high two years after the 2015-16 recession. Can the economy bounce back under the new administration? EM growth is persistentl