We assess the impact of potential policy surprises, using our BoP Nowcast and positioning toolkits. Low current account deficits pose limited risk, but in Mexico heavier positioning than in Brazil could amplify the impact of negative policy surprises.
In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at takeaways from the U.S. mid-term elections, the latest U.S.-China trade talks, Brazil in the wake of a newly elected government, and U.S. soybean exports.
Slack in Brazil remains high two years after the 2015-16 recession. Can the economy bounce back under the new administration? EM growth is persistentl
Inflation fell to its lowest level since 1999 driven by lower food, dwellings, and transport contributions. Using a bottom-up approach, we found incre