Expansionary fiscal policy will continue to drive non-oil growth, as fragile investment sentiment and regional tensions continue to hinder growth of the private non-oil sector. We expect overall growth to moderate to 2.0% in 2019, dragged down by compliance with the recent OPEC+ deal.
Supply outages, extension of the OPEC production cuts, and geopolitical risks pushed oil prices higher. Continued supply disruption in Venezuela and p
Higher oil prices will widen the current account surplus from 2.5% of GDP in 2017 to 9.6% in 2018. The fiscal deficit, including investment income, wi