The IIF covers 30-40 emerging and frontier markets, with a particular focus on economic and financing issues. Our reports feature topical analysis of macroeconomic fundamentals, policy developments, political economy dynamics and downside risks.
In our last edition of Sticky Notes in 2018, we look at President Xi's reform anniversary speech, Venezuela's future, NAFTA termination, oil markets, and a potential U.S. government shutdown.
Growth has rebounded, driven by higher copper prices and robust investment. Ongoing reforms will help reduce the fiscal deficit and stabilize public debt. High external corporate debt poses challenges, but several factors mitigate risks.
Sentiment on oil prices remained weak amid doubts that the planned production cuts will be enough to rein in oversupply, and as investors suspect that OPEC+ would honor their pledge to cut production. We expect Brent oil prices to average $67/bbl in 2019 if the OPEC+ agreement is fully implemented.
Sanctions depressed capital flows to Russia. Despite banks losing much foreign funding, domestic credit in local currency revived, and lending rates normalized in due course. High reserves cushioned the cost of sanctions, as did robust oil exports and low external debt.
Activity in China is cooling more than GDP suggests, but exports are not the main driver of the slowdown. Tariffs will eventually have an impact on the economy, that we quantify in a simple model of import demand. Growth would fall modestly in a détente scenario, but could drop by 0.5-1pp if trade tensions escalate.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions have created headwinds, but Qatar’s economy has shown signs of resiliency. We expect growth to accelerate to 2.9% in 2019, driven by natural gas production and public investment. Exiting from OPEC sends a symbolic message that the country wants to chart its own course.
In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at oil markets ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, consumer privacy laws, U.S.-China trade talks, and end-of-year book recommendations.
In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at key issues facing the incoming U.S. Congress, new realities in Mexico, U.S.-China trade talks, and potential auto tariffs.
In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at takeaways from the U.S. mid-term elections, the latest U.S.-China trade talks, Brazil in the wake of a newly elected government, and U.S. soybean exports.