The IIF covers 30-40 emerging and frontier markets, with a particular focus on economic and financing issues. Our reports feature topical analysis of macroeconomic fundamentals, policy developments, political economy dynamics and downside risks.
China’s 2060 carbon-neutral pledge is a game-changer in fighting climate change, aligning it with the EU, the UK and others.
CEE-4 economies have outperformed growth in the Euro area in recent years. Growth has been driven largely by private consumption and capital formation. But the Euro area’s weakness could be a drag on the medium-term outlook. Structural changes in sectors such as car manufacturing represent a challenge.
The CEE-4 will likely experience relatively moderate GDP contractions. Fiscal and monetary stimulus measures support private consumption. Despite rising COVID-19 cases, major lockdowns are unlikely to occur. Medium-term growth prospects remain promising across the region.
We expect the economy to contract by 5.2% in 2020 and grow by 2.3% in 2021, driven mainly by the non-oil private sector. The Kingdom responded to COVID-19 and the plunge in oil prices with major fiscal consolidation, but deep structural reforms are needed to raise potential non-oil growth.
Many EM central banks started QE-like programs at the height of the COVID-19 crisis. This coincided with questions arising with respect to the financing of widening deficits. However, actual government bond purchases remain limited so far, including in Asia. Domestic investors appear to have stepped in to buy up additional sovereign issuance.
Turkey’s current account balance will shift to a sizable deficit in 2020. Meanwhile, non-residents remain reluctant to finance the external gap. Residents’ strong FX demand adds to depreciation pressure on the Lira. Falling reserves constrain the CBRT’s ability to provide further stimulus.
Investors are concerned about the possibility of additional sanctions on Russia. German officials have threatened action against Nord Stream 2 in recent weeks. This would have important geopolitical, but likely limited economic, implications. Additional sanctions by the U.S. could depend on the 2020 presidential election. However, the Russian economy is substantially less vulnerable compared to 2014.