The IIF covers 30-40 emerging and frontier markets, with a particular focus on economic and financing issues. Our reports feature topical analysis of macroeconomic fundamentals, policy developments, political economy dynamics and downside risks.
The Indian rupee is the worst-performing currency in Asia this year. We assess whether this reflects heightened external vulnerability, comparing risk metrics in the run-up to the taper tantrum vs. now. The current account deficit will widen, but not to 2012 levels. Reserves relative to external financing needs are higher now. External vulnerability persists but is less acute than in 2012.
The EM sell-off is abating as the worst FX overvaluations have shrunk, but risks related to China remain in the context of the ongoing trade war. W
How long can investor bias toward the U.S. persist? Equity valuations have come down-but few markets look cheap EM risk aversion continues to rise, bu
Equities were more resilient with over $7 billion in inflows-of which China was $5.8 billion; in contrast, debt saw