|Capital Markets Monitor: EM Equity and FX Selloff: Crisis?||September 2, 2015 - 7:30pm||
Seven years after the Great Financial Crisis, the world's equity markets have experienced another bout of sharp sell-offs accompanied by a spike in volatility. While prices have fallen across the board, the decline in equity and currency values across a range of emerging markets has reached crisis proportions.
|September 2015 Forecast in Detail||September 2, 2015 - 7:05pm||
Compared to our July GEM, we have lowered our global growth forecast for both 2015 and 2016 by 0.1pp (Chart 1). This primarily reflects a weaker outlook for EMs (down –0.2 and –0.4pp, respectively). By contrast, mature economy forecasts remained broadly unchanged, as a stronger U.S. growth forecasts offsets weaker projections for both the Euro Area and Japan (Chart 2).
|IIF September Global Regulatory Update||September 2, 2015 - 5:34pm||
This month’s IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams in regulatory capital, liquidity, accounting, disclosure, insurance, systemically important financial institutions, regulatory impact as well as coherence and calibration.
|IIF Dispatch: Update from Brazil||September 2, 2015 - 5:23pm||
BRAZIL: CAUGHT IN A VICIOUS CIRCLE
Below we highlight the main takeaways from our recent trip to Brazil.
|IIF Dispatch: Update from Philippines||September 2, 2015 - 4:26pm||
Philippines might be one of the more resilient Asian countries to the recent turmoil. Yes, Philippines is quite exposed to China risk (we expect exports to continue to contract). However, key growth drivers are domestically driven. Recent GDP readings confirm this trend with growth bouncing back to 5.6% y/y in Q2 from 5% y/y in Q1. We expect growth to remain strong in the second half of the year, coming short of official projections at slightly below 6%.
|September 2015 Global Economic Monitor: Storm Out of China||September 2, 2015 - 7:28pm||
Over the last few weeks, a storm has raged across global financial markets, triggered by rising concern about China’s prospects and policy responses and volatility in the oil market. Recent stress is likely to further accentuate the divergence between emerging market and mature economy performance. We are again marking down our EM growth forecasts and remain concerned about further waves of stress. By contrast, mature economy growth momentum looks firm, as lower oil prices benefit oil-importing countries and lower inflation provides room for continued monetary accommodation. We have pushed back our call for Fed liftoff to Q4.
|Draghi's Dashboard: Further Easing In Prospect?||September 2, 2015 - 1:21pm||
As the ECB prepares for its monetary policy meeting tomorrow, the focus is likely to be on the current turbulence in global financial markets and the slump in commodity prices.
|Daily Flows Database||September 2, 2015 - 11:51am|
|GEM and CMM Conference Call & Web Presentation: EMs Under Pressure||September 2, 2015 - 8:29am||
You are invited to participate in a conference call "Emerging Markets under Pressure – September 2015 Global Macro and Capital Markets Outlook" on the latest developments in the global economy and financial markets. Drawing on our latest Capital Markets Monitor (CMM) and Global Economic Monitor (GEM) publications, Hung Tran (Executive Managing Director) and Charles Collyns (Chief Economist and MD) will discuss the recent escalation of problems in China, the associated global market turmoil, and surrounding risks as well as implications for capital markets and the global outlook. The call will take place on Thursday, September 3 at 8:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Daylight Time.
|Weekly Insight: After the Blowout||September 1, 2015 - 1:54am||
* Markets find some relief after China turmoil
|Saudi Arabia: The Peg Will Hold||August 27, 2015 - 4:59pm||
One year dollar riyal forwards have risen sharply, but the dollar peg will remain intact. However, given large projected deficits, time may be ripe for some consolidation, removal of implicit subsidies, and divestment of state assets to unlock efficiency and economic gains.
|Carbon Markets: Renewed Expectations||September 1, 2015 - 1:49am||
Despite more subdued trading volumes in recent years, carbon markets are likely to increase in number and size as policymakers develop these markets as a key tool for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets.
|IIF Flows Alert: Investors Exit EM Equities in Global Risk-off Move||September 1, 2015 - 1:55am||
Volatile market conditions have taken a toll on capital flows to emerging markets. Net non-resident portfolio flows in August fell into negative territory for the first time in 2015. EM equity flows bore the brunt of the retrenchment, dropping to their lowest level since the taper tantrum at an estimated -$8.7 billion. *Note: This has been cross-published as "August 2015 EM Portfolio Flows Tracker and Flows Alert."
|IIF Dispatch: Update on South Korea||August 27, 2015 - 5:13pm||
Our recent visit to Seoul found a country struggling to deal with multiple shocks. Korea is a country with one foot in the advanced economy world and one foot still in emerging markets, but seems to suffer from defects of both camps. We have revised down our growth forecast for 2015 and see 2016 growth remaining sluggish.
|IIF Dispatch: Update on South Africa||August 27, 2015 - 12:34pm||
Weak economic data, China-related market turmoil and looming Fed tightening pose a major dilemma for South African policymakers, but we believe authorities will raise rates.
|August 2015 EM Portfolio Flows Tracker and Flows Alert||September 1, 2015 - 1:48am||
Volatile market conditions have taken a toll on capital flows to emerging markets. Net non-resident portfolio flows in August fell into negative territory for the first time in 2015. EM equity flows bore the brunt of the retrenchment, dropping to their lowest level since the taper tantrum at an estimated -$8.7 billion. *Note: This has been cross-published as "IIF Flows Alert: Investors Exit EM Equities in Global Risk-off Move."
|Country/Regional Portfolio Flows Data||August 27, 2015 - 12:24pm|
|Portfolio Flows Tracker Data||August 27, 2015 - 12:23pm|
|EM Flows Snapshot: Retrenchment Intensifies||September 1, 2015 - 1:26am||
Non-resident portfolio flows to emerging markets have turned sharply negative in the last few weeks after a modest recovery in early August. However, so far the retrenchment has been less steep than either the 2013 taper tantrum or the 2008 global financial crisis.
|Don't Panic! EM Capital Flows Have Weakened, but NOT Collapsed||September 1, 2015 - 1:21am||
* There have been recent reports about massive capital outflows from emerging markets.