Program PDF Download

November 12, 2018 to November 14, 2018

Dubai, UAE

Program Agenda 
Monday, November 12, 2018
8:30am - 9:00am
REGISTRATION AND BREAKFAST
9:00am - 9:10am
SESSION 1: WELCOME SESSION
Wolfgang Engel, Chief Regional Representative, Dubai, IIF
Opening Remarks
9:10am - 10:00am
SESSION 2: HOW DO WE GO ABOUT DOING PROJECTIONS
Dr. Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, MENA, IIF
Schematic representation of inter-sectoral linkages
Projecting growth
Examples of inconsistent forecasts
Schematic representation of inter-sectoral linkages
10:00am - 11:00am
SESSION 3: INTERRELATIONS AMONG MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS
Dr. Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, MENA, IIF
Links between balance of payments and the fiscal sector
Links between balance of payments and monetary survey
Links between monetary the fiscal sector and monetary sector
Links between monetary the fiscal sector and monetary sector
Data consistency
Country examples
11:00am - 11:30am
COFFEE BREAK
11:30am - 1:00pm
SESSION 4: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS
Dr. Mazen Soueid, Advisor to Lebanese PM, Chief Economist BankMed, Previous IMF Staff
Global Financial Markets — what the emerging risks to consider and how monetary tightening will impact the MENA region
How the global trade war will impact the MENA region
1:00pm - 2:00pm
LUNCH
2:00pm - 3:00pm
SESSION 5: GUIDELINES FOR FORECASTING CPI
Reza Siregar, Head of ASEAN and India Research, IIF Office in Singapore
Inflation drivers
New Keynesian Phillips curve
Forecasting Inflation Using VAR Technique
Forecasting the GDP Deflator
3:00pm - 3:30pm
COFFEE BREAK
3:30pm - 5:00pm
SESSION 6: PROJECTING GDP & CPI
Dr. Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, MENA, IIF
Estimating potential output
Growth accounting decomposition
Guidelines for forecasting CPI
GDP deflator
Country examples
Program Agenda 
Tuesday, November 13, 2018
8:30am - 9:00am
BREAKFAST
9:00am - 9:45am
SESSION 7: GUIDELINES FOR FORECASTING THE CURRECT ACCOUNT
Dr. Reza Siregar & Dr. Mazen Soueid
Analytical presentation of the BOP
Forecasting exports, imports, and other current account components
Country examples
9:45am - 10:30am
SESSION 8: FORECASTING CAPITAL FLOWS
Dr. Garbis Iradian & Dr. Reza Siregar
Foreign direct investment
Portfolio investment
Other investment
Country examples
10:30am - 11:00am
COFFEE BREAK
11:10am - 12:00pm
SESSION 9: FORECASTING THE FISCAL ACCOUNTS
Reza Siregar, Head of ASEAN and India Research, IIF Office in Singapore
Analytical presentation of the fiscal accounts
Forecasting revenues
Forecasting expenditures
Country examples
12:00pm - 1:00pm
SESSION 10: EXTERNAL AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
Dr. Garbis Iradian and Reza Siregar
Key external indicators
Assessing current account and fiscal sustainability
Debt-to-GDP dynamic
How to stabilize debt
Country examples
1:00pm - 2:00pm
LUNCH
2:00pm - 3:30pm
SESSION 11: FORECASTING KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF GCC ECONOMIES
Dr. Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, MENA, IIF
Oil and Non-oil GDP Growth
Inflation Using VAR Technique
Exports, Imports, Oil Revenue, Non-oil revenue, & Gov’t Spending
Country Examples
3:30pm - 4:00pm
COFFEE BREAK
4:00pm - 4:45pm
SESSION 12: THE CHANGING LANDSCAPE OF MENA ECONOMIES
Dr. Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, MENA, IIF
Reassessing MENA’s growth dynamics
Public policy challenges—rebalancing and reform
How oil prices would impact MENA economies
4:45pm - 5:30pm
SESSION 13: DISCUSSION ON COUNTRY CASES
Garbis Iradian and Reza Siregar
Prepare forecast for 2018 and 2019
Assumptions: commodity prices, global growth, etc.
Participants are expected to bring their own laptops equipped with Excel (EViews desirable but not crucial) to work on a macroeconomic framework of selected countries
Program Agenda 
Wednesday, November 14, 2018
8:30am - 9:00am
BREAKFAST
9:00am - 10:30am
SESSION 14: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS
Garbis Iradian, Reza Siregar and Boban Markovic
Forecasting real GDP growth
Forecasting CPI and GDP deflator
Forecasting the main components of the BOP
10:30am - 11:00am
COFFEE BREAK
11:00am - 12:30pm
SESSION 15: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS
Garbis Iradian, Reza Siregar and Boban Markovic
Forecasting the main components of the current account
Forecasting the main components of the financial account
Forecasting the monetary survey
12:30pm - 1:30pm
LUNCH
1:30pm - 3:00pm
SESSION 16: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS (CONTINUED)
Reza Siregar, Garbis Iradian and Boban Markovic
Forecasting government revenue
Forecasting government spending
Forecasting the monetary survey
3:30pm - 4:30pm
SESSION 17: ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION OF THE FORECASTS
Participants
4:30pm - 5:00pm
SESSION 18: WRAP UP
Garbis Iradian, Reza Siregar
What have we learned over the three days—main takeaways
What are the areas where more focus is needed going forward?