Thursday, January 30, 2014

Emerging market conditions have continued to be quite choppy, including a significant market correction in early 2014. We do not anticipate a sustained pull-back from emerging markets, but investors have become increasingly sensitive to country risks, which will test countries that experience heightened political uncertainties or do not take timely and decisive measures to address weaknesses in policy frameworks. As our baseline scenario, we continue to expect a gradual rebound in capital flows in 2014 and 2015, in line with a projected sustained pick-up in world growth and a gradual Fed exit. However, flows will remain at a much lower level relative to GDP than over 2010-2012 and uncertainty around our baseline projection remains high.

IIF Authors

Charles Collyns

Charles Collyns Managing Director and Chief Economist IIF
Charles
Collyns
Managing Director and Chief Economist
+1-202-857-3609
ccollyns@iif.com

Hung Tran

Hung Tran Executive Managing Director IIF
Hung
Tran
Executive Managing Director
+1-202-682-7449
htran@iif.com

Felix Huefner

Felix
Huefner
Chief Economist, Global Macroeconomic Analysis
+1-202-857-3651
fhuefner@iif.com

Sonja Gibbs

Sonja Gibbs Senior Director Global Capital Markets IIF
Sonja
Gibbs
Senior Director, Global Capital Markets
+1-202-857-3325
sgibbs@iif.com

Bejoy Das Gupta

Bejoy Das Gupta
Bejoy
Das Gupta
Chief Economist
+1-202-857-3649
bdasgupta@iif.com

Lubomir Mitov

Lubomir
Mitov
Chief Economist
+1-202-857-3653
lmitov@iif.com

Ramón Aracena

Ramón
Aracena
Chief Economist
+1-202-857-3630
raracena@iif.com

David Hedley

David
Hedley
Chief Economist
+1-202-857-3605
dhedley@iif.com

Garbis Iradian

Garbis
Iradian
Head of MENA Research
+1-202-857-3304
giradian@iif.com

Robin Koepke

Robin
Koepke
Senior Economist
+1-202-857-3313
rkoepke@iif.com

Emre Tiftik

Emre
Tiftik
Deputy Director
+1-202-857-3321
etiftik@iif.com

Saacha Mohammed

Saacha
Mohammed
Senior Research Analyst
+1-202-857-3309
smohammed@iif.com

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