Tuesday, September 18, 2018

The EM sell-off is abating as the worst FX overvaluations have shrunk, but risks related to China remain in the context of the ongoing trade war. We update our China activity tracker to assess how much tariffs are biting. Even though official GDP numbers remain oddly stable, activity is softening. Trade data are mixed, suggesting tariffs are not the only headwind. Deleveraging in a credit-intensive economy is also behind the slowdown.

IIF Authors

Sergi Lanau

Sergi
Lanau
Deputy Chief Economist
slanau@iif.com

Gene Ma

Gene
Ma
Head of China Research
202-857-3305
gma@iif.com

Yuanliu Hu

Yuanliu
Hu
Senior Research Analyst
+1 202-971-3432
yhu@iif.com

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