Tuesday, October 16, 2018

We turned more positive on the EM complex recently, while flagging concentration risk in South Africa and others. We assess how vulnerable South Africa is in this context. A widening current account deficit, relatively low FDI, and limited reserves make external vulnerability high. Local-currency external borrowing mitigates risk partially.

IIF Authors

Sergi Lanau

Sergi
Lanau
Deputy Chief Economist
slanau@iif.com

Ugras Ulku

Ugras
Ulku
Deputy Head of EM Europe Research
+1-202-857-3617
uulku@iif.com

Tariq Khan

Tariq
Khan
Research Analyst
+1 202 857 3339
tkhan@iif.com

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