Thursday, November 8, 2018

Just as in 2015, our activity tracker points to a slowdown, even though official GDP figures remain broadly stable. We compare the current slowdown to the 2015 episode, to see how much trade tensions are weighing on activity. So far, exports are less of a drag on activity than in 2015. Sectors most affected by deleveraging drove the slowdown.

IIF Authors

Sergi Lanau

Sergi
Lanau
Deputy Chief Economist
slanau@iif.com

Gene Ma

Gene
Ma
Head of China Research
202-857-3305
gma@iif.com

Yuanliu Hu

Yuanliu
Hu
Senior Research Analyst
+1 202-971-3432
yhu@iif.com

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