Thursday, February 19, 2015

2015 is shaping up as the year of divergence: mature economy growth accelerates while EMs lag behind; the Fed is set to hike rates while most other central banks are easing; the oil price drop benefits importers but hurts exporters; and Chinese growth slows as India is accelerating. The big picture across these divergent developments, however, remains a global economy that is slowly gaining speed with the U.S. and Euro Area in the driving seat. We have upgraded our mature economy forecasts while lowering our sights for the EMs. For 2016, we see a recovery in EM growth as more stimulative monetary policy kicks in and the Russia/Ukraine conflict should abate.

IIF Authors

Charles Collyns

Charles Collyns Managing Director and Chief Economist IIF
Charles
Collyns
Managing Director and Chief Economist
+1-202-857-3609
ccollyns@iif.com

George T. Abed

George T.
Abed
Distinguished Scholar in Residence
+1-202-857-3644
gabed@iif.com

Ramón Aracena

Ramón
Aracena
Chief Economist
+1-202-857-3630
raracena@iif.com

Bejoy Das Gupta

Bejoy Das Gupta
Bejoy
Das Gupta
Chief Economist
+1-202-857-3649
bdasgupta@iif.com

Felix Huefner

Felix
Huefner
Chief Economist, Global Macroeconomic Analysis
+1-202-857-3651
fhuefner@iif.com

Feng Guo

Feng
Guo
Chief Representative
+1-202-857-3654
fguo@iif.com

Ugras Ulku

Ugras
Ulku
Deputy Head of EM Europe Research
+1-202-857-3617
uulku@iif.com

Robin Koepke

Robin
Koepke
Senior Economist
+1-202-857-3313
rkoepke@iif.com

Hussein Anooshah

Hussein
Anooshah
Associate Economist
+1-202-857-3621
hanooshah@iif.com

Kristina Morkunaite

Kristina
Morkunaite
Senior Research Analyst
+1-202-857-3640
kmorkunaite@iif.com

Arpitha Bykere

Arpitha Bykere - IIF
Arpitha
Bykere
Associate Economist
+1-202-857-3308
abykere@iif.com

Saacha Mohammed

Saacha
Mohammed
Senior Research Analyst
+1-202-857-3309
smohammed@iif.com

Litia Shaw

Litia
Shaw
Senior Program Assistant
+1-202-857-3659
lshaw@iif.com

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