Friday, June 8, 2018

The announced IMF program – $50 bn over 3 years – averages out to somewhat more our predictions. We see the speed of agreement and size of the package as clear positives. That said, given the difficult reality of needed fiscal and current account adjustment, it is possible that the financing need in year one of the program may exceed our estimated run-rate for annual reserve losses. Therefore, we believe it is critical that disbursements be front-loaded and that other multilateral agencies pitch in during the critical early stages of the program.

IIF Authors

Robin Brooks

Managing Director and Chief Economist

Martín Castellano

Head of LATAM Research