Thursday, July 12, 2018

Many emerging markets have sold off sharply this year, and a hawkish shift from the Fed could add fuel to the fire. We examine Fed policy through the lens of the SEP forecasts to examine if it is behind the curve on unemployment or inflation. On a near-term policy horizon – 2018 – forecasts look reasonable. But on a one- to two-year view the Fed might be behind the curve. We therefore expect a hawkish shift from the Fed, just not yet.

IIF Authors

Robin Brooks

Robin
Brooks
Managing Director and Chief Economist
+1.202.857.3609
rbrooks@iif.com

Gregory Basile

Gregory
Basile
Senior Research Analyst
gbasile@iif.com

Tariq Khan

Tariq
Khan
Research Analyst
+1 202 857 3339
tkhan@iif.com

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