Thursday, June 28, 2018

Early this year we warned of large FX overvaluations in Argentina and Turkey. With both currencies having fallen a lot, we update our EM FX valuation model. The Peso has essentially erased its overvaluation and is now close to fair value. The Lira is borderline cheap, having more than offset current account widening. The currencies of South Africa, India, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia are expensive. Undervaluation persists for Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Korea and Malaysia.

IIF Authors

Robin Brooks

Robin
Brooks
Managing Director and Chief Economist
@RobinBrooksIIF
rbrooks@iif.com

Jonathan Fortun

Jonathan
Fortun
Associate Economist
@econchart
jfortun@iif.com

Tariq Khan

Tariq
Khan
Research Analyst
+1 202 857 3339
tkhan@iif.com

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