Wednesday, April 15, 2015
  • The recent framework agreement sets the stage for a final deal agreement this summer that would lift economic and financial sanctions once Iran is demonstrated to have complied with its obligations.
  • The economic implications of lifting the sanctions would be enormous. Growth could accelerate to 6% driven by a surge in exports and private investment, the fiscal deficit would narrow, the large spread between the official and the black market rates could be eliminated by end-2015, and the authorities could press ahead with reforms to improve the business environment.
  • The recovery of Iran’s oil production and exports could lead to continued low oil prices beyond 2015.
  • While the framework agreement has boosted the more moderate government of President Rouhani, there are still risks that it will fall part.

IIF Authors

Garbis Iradian

Head of MENA Research

Amanda Preston

Senior Program Assistant