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Economic Views: The Drivers of Growth in EM

Growth differentials across EM are large. Asian EMs outperformed in the long-run, mostly due to higher productivity growth. Low productivity explains low growth, in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa.

Global Debt Monitor - July 2019

Spurred by falling interest rates, global debt rose by a hefty $3 trillion in Q1 2019.  At over $246 trillion, global debt is now just $2 trillion shy of the all-time high of Q1 2018.  EM debt hit a record $69 trillion in Q1 2019—over 216% of GDP. 

Global Macro Views: Rebalancing in Turkey and Argentina

Since the height of the Lira and Peso sell-off in August 2018, both currencies have weakened sharply in real effective terms. While both have seen their current account deficits narrow sharply, this is mostly due to cyclical weakness and not genuine rebalancing. This is why our FX fair value model signals that both the Lira and Peso are only fair and not undervalued.

Weekly Insight: Conditional optimism

Powell reaffirms dovish stance—but if stronger U.S. data derail cuts, could a bond market selloff be on the horizon?; Catch-22: central bank accommodation intended to support growth ends up hurting the financial sector; Over 17% of the EM USD corporate bond universe (ex-financials) have credit ratings on “negative outlook”; U.S. investors have growing exposure to climate risk via their cross-border investments—especially in equities; International investors shift into Chinese RMB bonds after index inclusion—foreign holdings now at a record $284 billion

IIF July Global Regulatory Update

The July 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on: The Financial Stability Board Regulatory Capital Recovery and Resolution C...

LatAm Views: Colombia's Public Debt Risk

Colombia's public debt has increased steadily. We assess the medium-term fiscal framework, which includes optimistic growth projections, relying heavily on improved tax collection. Debt will fall slowly in conservative scenarios.

Economic Views: China’s Stable Growth Outlook

Activity in China slowed significantly in mid-2018, but has been stable since September despite tariffs. A revival in credit-intensive sectors offset tariffs, which clearly affected export volumes to the US. Scope for policy support remains if growth falters.

CEEMEA Views: Hungary - Growth Remains Robust

Strong domestic spending has kept output above potential, intensifying inflation pressures. Weaker foreign demand should allow policies to remain accommodative in the near term. Labor shortages and reduced access to EU funds will be the main medium-term challenges. 

GRU Podcast: Global Regulatory Developments around Recovery and Resolution

Dr. Eva Hüpkes, Acting Head Regulatory and Supervisory Policies at Secretariat of the Financial Stability Board (FSB), spoke with the Institute of Int...

IIF feedback on FSB Evaluation of Too-Big-To-Fail reforms

The IIF has submitted a response to the FSB’s Call for Evidence. We urge the FSB to consider specific issues during its evaluation, including market fragmentary trends around the implementation of the TBTF reforms. 

 

 

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