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Publications

Weekly Insight: Speed Bumps

U.S.-China tariff tantrum highlights risks for corporate earnings; Global IPO activity slowing as debt financing prevails—except in the U.S. where tech offerings steam ahead; At around 15% of GDP, the USD debt of non-bank borrowers is now as high in mature markets (ex-U.S.) as for emerging markets—and a risk in both cases; Innovative sustainability-linked loans gain traction; ESG bond/loan issuance set to surpass $300bn in 2019

Global Macro Views: The EM Positioning Problem

We unveiled a new EM positioning database late last year. Here we provide a further breakdown into equities and bonds, which allow us to zero in on the biggest EM positioning overhangs. The largest overhang, South Africa, is due to both in equal measure.

GCC Real Estate Developments: Still Searching for a Turnaround

Oversupply and weak demand have weighed on real estate prices since 2014. Vulnerability stems from an unrealistic economic model amplified by adverse external factors, with detrimental effects to growth and financial stability. However, policy responses may slow the pace of future price declines.

Frontier LatAm: Assessing External Vulnerability

Current account deficits in Frontier LatAm remain wide and are largely dependent on remittances and oil prices. While high FDI helps cover external financing needs, debt buildups have been significant in some countries, increasing external vulnerability amid limited buffers.

Economic Views: Imbalances Build Up in Colombia

Colombia’s current account deficit was wide in 2018, despite depreciation since the oil price shock of 2014-15. We think deficits are largely driven by structural forces.Colombia’s external vulnerability will likely remain.

April 2019 EM Growth Tracker

EM Growth Tracker at 3.6% 3m/3m sa ar in April. Hard data variables behind the improvement. EM Europe & Africa trackers with important gains.

FRT Episode 33: “Techlash” & Data Policy

Rob Atkinson, President of the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation (ITIF), joins FRT to discuss the emerging “Techlash” reaction against technological change, and the impacts for current debates on data privacy and protection policies.

Request For Feedback: Draft Voluntary Principles For Debt Transparency

We are pleased to invite comments and suggestions on the latest draft of the voluntary Principles for Debt Transparency.  Feedback is welcomed from all stakeholders, including private sector financial firms; official sector bodies including international organizations, finance ministries and debt management offices; and civil society.

IIF Paper on Bias and Ethical Implications in Machine Learning

The IIF is pleased to share our paper on "Bias and Ethical Implications in Machine Learning," the second paper on our three-part Thematic Series on issues related to Machine Learning (ML).

Weekly Insight: May flowers

Steady Fed gives sense of balanced risks: “healthy” U.S. economic trajectory, potential inflation rise towards 2%; Frontier market debt growing quickly — total outstanding $3.2 trillion — sovereign defaults low (for now); Green and sustainability-linked lending nearly doubles in 2018 – now almost $100 billion outstanding; LIBOR transition fraught with risks — linked to contract maturity profiles, spreads to new benchmarks

 

 

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