Slump in cyclical sectors highlights concerns about global growth, impact of quantitative tightening; Market selloff has prompted a sharp correction in equity valuations—but they still don’t look cheap; Signs of rotation to emerging markets; This will be the last Weekly Insight of 2018—see you in the New Year!

In this forerunner to deeper IIF analysis that will follow in 2019, we look at some potential scenarios where innovative disruption could have an asymmetric effect on banks’ balance sheets.

Lesson #1: Don’t engineer an outsize credit boom into a global tightening cycle. Lesson #2: Current account-based estimates of FX fair value are really important. Lesson #3: After a decade of G-3 monetary easing, EM has a positioning overhang. Lesson #4: Imposing a tariff on China is a negative shock that weakens the RMB. Lesson #5: Don’t get hung up on stories the Fed is shifting hawkish. It isn’t.

In our last edition of Sticky Notes in 2018, we look at President Xi's reform anniversary speech, Venezuela's future, NAFTA termination, oil markets, and a potential U.S. government shutdown.

We have introduced a new measure of real money positioning in EM, which extends the IIF’s well-known work on capital flows to positioning. Our positioning data are calibrated to match stock positions in the BoP, so by construction are representative of the full positioning picture.

Growth has rebounded, driven by higher copper prices and robust investment. Ongoing reforms will help reduce the fiscal deficit and stabilize public debt. High external corporate debt poses challenges, but several factors mitigate risks.

The Heat Map is constructed to compare relative vulnerabilities across countries and is used for analyses in our publications such as the Global Economic Monitor and Capital Flows Report, in particular to assess'  the cross-country impact of higher risk aversion or increase in Fed policy rates, especially in EMs with external vulnerabilities and less credible policy frameworks.'

The December 2018 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams in regulatory capital, recovery and resolution, accounting, cyber security, digital finance, sustainable finance, AML/CFT, insurance, and upcoming events.

Sentiment on oil prices remained weak amid doubts that the planned production cuts will be enough to rein in oversupply, and as investors suspect that OPEC+ would honor their pledge to cut production. We expect Brent oil prices to average $67/bbl in 2019 if the OPEC+ agreement is fully implemented.

U.S.: $1.5tn in student loans present fiscal risks; $1tn in leveraged loans vulnerable to rising interest rates ; Banking flows to the UK weaken since the Brexit referendum; Inflation under control in most key EMs; but central bank independence under scrutiny in many countries; RMB gains as a global reserve currency; foreign investor demand for bonds shifts from China to other EMs

Foreign capital flows to EM are a key, but incomplete, part of the positioning story, since they capture buying and selling, but not all the valuation changes in between. We unveil a new database that adds valuation changes to our existing flows work, giving, to our knowledge, the most complete and up-to-date EM positioning snapshot.

EM Growth Tracker at 3.9% 3m/3m sa ar in November. Decline driven by hard data but offset by improved corporate sentiment. Trade volumes improve, but internal demand is still weak. LatAm and EM Asia trackers decline.

The November 2018 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams in regulatory capital, recovery and resolution, accounting, cybersecurity, risk management, digital finance, sustainable finance, AML/CFT, insurance, and upcoming events. 

Sanctions depressed capital flows to Russia. Despite banks losing much foreign funding, domestic credit in local currency revived, and lending rates normalized in due course. High reserves cushioned the cost of sanctions, as did robust oil exports and low external debt.

The November/December Insurance Update provides targeted updates on IIF insurance activities and events, and highlights relevant IIF publications or related regulatory developments in other fields.