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FRT Episode 19: Live from RiskMinds - Agility and Transformation

Marcus Chromik (Commerzbank CRO) and Harold Marcenaro (BCP Head of Digital Risk) join FRT at the RiskMinds International conference in Amsterdam, sharing their insights with Risk practitioners’ perspectives on the opportunities and challenges in digital transformation (Brad Carr).

Weekly Insight: Wake me up when it's over

Tighter financial conditions, yield curve inversion prompt more bets on a Fed pause. Equity analysts revise down 2019 earnings forecasts; banks underperform. Sharp rebound in EM portfolio flows in November; EM oil importers see the benefit of lower prices. Tax revenues at very high levels—but are governments using them effectively? 

Economic Views: The Impact of Tariffs on China’s Growth

Activity in China is cooling more than GDP suggests, but exports are not the main driver of the slowdown. Tariffs will eventually have an impact on the economy, that we quantify in a simple model of import demand. Growth would fall modestly in a détente scenario, but could drop by 0.5-1pp if trade tensions escalate.

Qatar: Pushing Forward Against Headwinds

Ongoing geopolitical tensions have created headwinds, but Qatar’s economy has shown signs of resiliency. We expect growth to accelerate to 2.9% in 2019, driven by natural gas production and public investment. Exiting from OPEC sends a symbolic message that the country wants to chart its own course. 

Sticky Notes: December 5, 2018

In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at oil markets ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, consumer privacy laws, U.S.-China trade talks, and end-of-year book recommendations.

IIF Capital Flows Tracker: Strong Recovery

Emerging markets saw portfolio inflows of $33.9 billion in November, the strongest inflows since January. Our broader measure of net capital flows remained negative in October, driven by outflows from China. 

Global Macro Views: EM Positioning after the Sell-Off

2018 has been a difficult year for many emerging markets, but sentiment has recently shifted more positive in many cases, reflecting cheap valuations, a dovish Fed, and a China-US trade “truce.” With sentiment more positive, market focus is squarely on positioning, with people asking how much positioning was cut during the EM sell-off. We develop new data that give a comprehensive look at EM positioning, combining IIF work on capital flows with valuation changes on the stock, where the latter historically account for the bulk of positioning changes.

Weekly Insight: White Noise

Equity market volte-face highlights renewed concern about U.S.-China trade tensions; Pace of decline in global central bank asset purchases accelerates; High debt-to-cash levels in the corporate sector—another sign of trouble for credit markets; Carry trade returns still generally sub-par, but looking more attractive for a few emerging markets

Global Macro Views: Capital Flows during the EM Sell-Off

This year’s EM sell-off underscored the importance of FX valuation with markets, in dramatic fashion, going after meaningful FX overvaluations. At this point, our models signal neutral or cheap valuations for much of EM, so that currency misalignments are less of a risk factor as we approach 2019. But a positioning overhang in emerging markets remains a material risk factor, given the intensity of capital flows to EM resulting from G-3 monetary stimulus. This piece starts a series of Global Macro Views on EM flows and positioning, which we kick off today by looking at flows over the EM sell-off this summer.

FRT Episode 18: IIF Future Leaders in Silicon Valley

During their tour of leading enterprises in Silicon Valley and San Francisco, IIF Future leaders members Neeraj Khanna (Wells Fargo), Evy Wee (DBS), Natalia Bailey & Jonathan Fortun (both of the IIF) share their main takeaways and insights (Natalia Bailey, Jonathan Fortun).

 

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