Lacking market access, frontier markets will face funding gaps. Covering Ecuador’s funding gap for about $1.5 billion in 2023-24, … sho...

We discuss external bond recovery value scenarios, … consistent with Sri Lanka’s restructuring targets, … while illustrating the...

High-yield EM credit has done very well in recent months, … but we remain concerned about quite a few frontier markets. El Salvador’s o...

We present recovery value scenarios for Ghana’s external debt, … that are consistent with the country’s restructuring targets, &he...

Lula proposed an unexpectedly large fiscal package in late 2022, … adding to concerns about policy risk and coming fiscal rule changes. The g...

The legislature has shrunk Lula’s spending package somewhat, … but the overall fiscal picture going into 2023 is still too weak, &hellip...

We assess 2023 budgets put forward by a group of ten EMs. Fiscal deficits will be larger than in 2019 almost universally, … including countri...

We assess the fiscal position the Lula administration inherits, … and discuss the implications of possible spending packages. Fiscal accounts...

Brazil is easing fiscal policy by possibly more than 1% of GDP, … as elections approach amid high inflation and social discontent. In 2022,...

Long-term US yields are rising rapidly fast and global growth slowing, ... a combination that could prove challenging for some emerging markets. ...

EMs funded large fiscal deficits smoothly in the covid crisis. Foreigners and FX issuance played a minor role in most EMs. Domestic bond buyers ar...

Chile and Colombia ran very wide twin deficits last year, … and their economies overheated due to policy stimulus. Very different fiscal po...

Very few EMs will fully normalize fiscal deficits this year. South Africa will but we don’t think adjustment is strong. Primary spending cut...

Peru’s fiscal policy stance remains expansionary this year, … but the government says it is committed to the tight fiscal rule. The s...