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MENA Update: Twin Shocks -- COVID-19 and Plunging Oil Prices

Our MENA growth forecast stands at -0.3% with additional downside risks and high uncertainty over the duration of the shutdown and an additional potential fall on oil prices. We project recession in most oil exporters, the lowest growth in oil importers since the early 1990s, and wide twin deficits. 

Weekly Insight: COVID-19 exacerbates household debt burdens

Global household debt tops $47 trillion—over $12 trillion higher than in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis; More than three-fourths of the 75 countries in our sample now have higher household debt-to-GDP ratios than in 2007.

The Big Questions: Episode 2 - Forecasting Global Growth Amid The COVID-19 Pandemic

Robin Brooks, Managing Director and Chief Economist, Elina Ribakova, Deputy Chief Economist, and Sergi Lanau, Deputy Chief Economist, tackle their global and regional growth forecasts in six questions.

Understanding U.S. Fiscal and Monetary Responses to COVID-19

The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Federal Government have begun to implement a series of policy measures to address the economic and financial fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, the two grids in this document break out the recent policy responses. 

China Spotlight: An Economy Under Quarantine

The damage to China’s economy by COVID-19 will far exceed the impact of SARS and the GFC. Though factories have reopened, it will take much lo...

IIF Joins Other Associations In Request To Basel Committee And IOSCO To Suspend Phase-In Of Non-Cleared Margin Requirements

The IIF commended the efforts taken by BCBS and IOSCO to address the challenges of the final phases of non-cleared margin implementation. However, it underscored that the efforts of our members to prepare are severely impacted by the global COVID-19 pandemic.

Joint IIF-McKinsey Cyber Resilience Survey

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) and McKinsey & Co. have completed a joint survey around cyber resilience to provide an understanding of current and planned practices that financial firms are undertaking to enable and strengthen firm-level and sector-level cyber resilience.

Macro Notes: COVID19-Induced Recession in CEEMEA

We now expect a recession in CEEMEA as a result of COVID-19. CEE will be affected by Euro area contraction but has policy space. ussia’s buffers and flexible Ruble should reduce impact on growth. Lower growth will markedly worsen debt dynamics in South Africa. Recession concerns could trigger further policy easing in Turkey.

Economic Views: EM Asia & LatAm Growth under COVID-19

We see the global economy in recession this year, as low oil and financial stress add to the Covid shock. The shock hits EM after years of already subpar growth. We project recessions everywhere in Latin America, and the lowest EM Asia growth since the 1997-98 crisis.

Digital Transformation and COVID Adaptation

This is a supplement to the IIF-Deloitte series, Realizing The Digital Promise, and captures some of the topical insights shared: both in success stories with the deployment of new technological solutions, and also in some of the cultural adaptation challenges, where some aspects of the current predicament may present a microcosm of the digital transformation journey. 

 

 

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