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GMV: Is the Dollar Overshooting versus EM Currencies?

The Dollar has risen to a record high versus EM currencies. We investigate if this Dollar strength is the beginning of a trend, ...  or if va...

IIF November Global Regulatory Update 

The November 2019 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on the Financial Stability Board along with current work streams in Regulatory Capital, Recovery and Resolution, Disclosure, Risk Management, Cyber Security, Digital Finance, Sustainable Finance, AML/CFT, Insurance and upcoming events. 

Macro Notes: Can Russia Boost Growth?

Russian authorities announced a policy pivot towards growth. National projects exceed 3% of GDP per year over 2019-24. Apart from national projects, policies will likely remain tight. We therefore expect only a modest pickup in Russia’s growth.

Lebanon: Outflow Controls Show Need for Reform 

Lebanon's capital controls may avert short-term crisis. Yet they can pose a long-term cost by discouraging inflows, which play a pivotal role in the country's economic model. Timely formation of a new government with a strong commitment to reform can boost confidence and enable removal of controls. 

Economic Views: Chile’s Moderate External Vulnerability

Chile is in focus as the social situation remains in flux. External vulnerability is moderate relative to other EMs. Depreciation will narrow the ...

October 2019 EM Growth Tracker

Our EM Growth Tracker came in at 3.2% (3m/3m SAAR) in October, 0.2pp lower than the month prior. The deterioration in our tracker was mainly driven by...

GMV: The Engine Room of our Inflation-Consistent NAIRUs

Consensus NAIRU estimates put the Euro periphery near full employment, ... even though the pace of underlying inflation has been subdued for many ye...

Weekly Insight: Game of Loans

Global debt has topped $250 trillion—320% of GDP; emerging market debt hits a new record of $71.4 trillion (220% of GDP); With limited room for further monetary easing, debt service costs will be an increasing constraint on fiscal policy; Climate change is driving significant reallocation in investor portfolios; high-debt countries will have a much harder time coming up with funding to address climate risks; USD hovering at record highs despite Fed rate cuts this year: persistent growth in demand for U.S. liquidity as dollar debt across EM and mature markets (ex-U.S.) hits record highs.  Non-U.S. banks are increasingly reliant on USD funding.

Global Debt Monitor - November 2019

Global debt surged by $7.5 trillion in H1 2019, hitting a new record of over $250 trillion. With no sign of a slowdown, we expect the global debt load to exceed $255 trillion in 2019—largely driven by the U.S. and China.

Tim Adams Scene-Setting Remarks To The 26th Annual IAIS Conference

IIF President and CEO, Tim Adams, delivers scene-setting remarks to the 26th Annual IAIS Conference in Abu Dhabi, UAE. Speech as prepared for delivery. 

 

 

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