On behalf of the IIF membership—over 450 global firms across the financial services industry—President and CEO Tim Adams expresses our grave concern about the threat to debt sustainability posed by the COVID-19 pandemic.
We revise global GDP growth in 2020 down significantly to -2.8%. This means that the COVID-19 shock is worse than the GFC in 2009. The IIF’s tracking of portfolio flows shows an unprecedented outflow. Our projections show some risk of further outflows in the 2nd quarter.
EM funding needs are still high despite current account adjustment.
Tim Adams, President and CEO of the Institute of International Finance, and Scott O’Malia, CEO of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, sent recommendations to the G20 Group of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors aimed at improving dollar liquidity issues for both developed and emerging markets.
The COVID-19 shock has led to a pronounced sudden stop in EM. Out short-term portfolio tracker shows record outflows in 2020Q1. We expect a modest recovery in capital flows in the 2nd half of 2020. Nevertheless, capital flows to EM will be much weaker than in 2019. Given uneven EM policy space, multilateral support will be needed.
The focus of this Staff Paper is on how new ECL standards work, how they introduce procyclicality under deteriorating credit conditions, and what actions and guidance regulators and accounting standard-setting bodies have issued to help avoid excessive procyclicality in the current crisis.
Global debt across all sectors rose by over $10 trillion in 2019, topping $255 trillion. At over 322% of GDP, global debt is now 40 percentage points ($87 trillion) higher than at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis—a sobering realization as governments worldwide gear up to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.
In a special two-part episode, IIF Executive Vice President of Research and Policy, Clay Lowery, joins host Dylan Riddle to discuss the outcome of the G20 extraordinary virtual leadership summit. Later in the episode, Deputy Chief Economist Elina Ribakova reflects on South Africa's recent downgrade and outlines what is next for the key emerging market.
COVID-19 sends equity valuations plummeting worldwide: the U.S. cyclically adjusted P/E ratio (price to average long-term real earnings) is just below its long-term average, while Germany, France and EMs CAPEs are already near historic lows.
In this special edition of the Global Regulatory Update, Andres Portilla, Managing Director and Head of Regulatory Affairs, discusses with Bill Coen, former Secretary General of the Basel Committee and Chairman of the IFRS Advisory Council, the global regulatory and policy response to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis.
The April U.S. Regulatory Update covers U.S. regulators’ responses to COVID-19, the CARES Act, the recent FSOC meeting, the Fed’s stress capital buffer and CCAR announcements, and more.
The COVID-19 shock has meant a sharp sudden stop for emerging markets, with our daily tracking of non-resident portfolio outflows at unprecedented levels.
Russia’s fiscal breakeven oil price, around $40/bbl in 2020, is the lowest among major oil exporters. While Saudi Arabia’s fiscal and external breakeven prices should decline due to a cut in non-priority spending and a fall in imports, fiscal breakeven prices remain well above $60 in much of MENA.
Janine Guillot, the CEO of, Sustainability Accounting Standards Board Foundation (SASB), Janine Guillot, joins the latest episode of our “All about the Green” podcast. Speaking with the IIF Managing Director and Head of Sustainable Finance, Sonja Gibbs.
March saw the largest portfolio outflows from EM. Equity and debt were -$52.4 bn and -$31.0 bn, respectively. Net capital flows to EM reached $0.2 bn in February.
Acclaimed author Chris Skinner joins FRT to discuss his latest book, Doing Digital, profiling the digitalization efforts, challenges and success stories of JP Morgan, BBVA, ING, DBS & China Merchants Bank.
We believe multilateral support will be critical for South Africa going forward. Moody’s rating downgrade will likely trigger further capital outflows in 2020Q2. This will continue the pressure on the ZAR, which we have flagged as overvalued. Economic contraction and higher funding costs will likely make debt unsustainable.
China’s NPL ratio has been remarkably stable amid slowing economic growth, largely because many NPLs have been written off. Without these write-offs, China’s NPL ratio would be at 4.85% today instead of the actual 1.86%. More institutions and instruments have been introduced to clean up NPLs.