The Global Capital Markets team monitors developments in international financial markets across equity, fixed-income, credit, FX, commodities and derivatives. We provide independent, timely analysis with a focus on identifying potential systemic risks.  Looking at mature, emerging and frontier markets, our publications also offer regular views on national-level debt dynamics, banking sector trends and local market development. Cross-cutting themes include the impact of regulatory change and new financial technologies, as well as infrastructure investment and green finance.

Documents & Resources

March 15, 2018
Rising trade tensions continue to hang over equity markets—but pricing the uncertainty remains difficult. Escalation of trade disputes could foreshadow a less welcoming climate for cross-border investment. Growing external financing needs highlight vulnerabilities for some EM currencies. Continued signs of investor discrimination across emerging market country funds.
March 9, 2018
An upturn in global activity and still-loose global financial conditions support strong demand for frontier market assets
March 8, 2018
Market turbulence in early February prompted a “sudden stop” in fund flows, with U.S. equities hit particularly hard. However, fund flows to emerging markets have held up well, with strong demand for local currency bonds.
March 7, 2018
This month’s CMM offers a snapshot of developments in high-yield bond markets and potential risks ahead.
March 1, 2018
Risk appetite still dented; tighter financial conditions hurt. Higher hedging costs renew questions about foreign appetite for Treasuries. EM portfolio outflows in February concentrated in equity markets; EM local currency bonds stay resilient. U.S. trade policy takes center stage.
February 21, 2018
* Frontier markets have rewarded investors in recent years with high returns, lower volatility, and lower correlation. * However, markets remain small and illiquid; for some frontier market countries, debt has risen sharply in recent years. * While frontier markets remain a tiny subset of global stock and bond markets—limiting access for some larger investors—the fixed income universe is growing quickly. * Strong growth prospects in frontier Asia should continue to attract portfolio equity and banking flows; frontier Middle East expected to remain significant issuer in fixed income markets.
February 15, 2018
Non-resident capital flows to emerging markets are projected to rise modestly in 2018 and 2019. The key risks to our benign flows scenario include a pickup in inflation, a stronger USD, and repricing of risk premia.
February 15, 2018
* With the spotlight on US twin deficits, the uneasy higher rates/softer dollar dichotomy continues * Daily EM outflows show signs of easing up * New Capital Flows Report - cautious optimism for 2018 flows to emerging markets... * ...but more vulnerable EM and frontier markets at risk amid more volatile market conditions
February 13, 2018
We look across financing needs, reserve adequacy, and asset valuation as the core of our scorecard, while also considering institutional strength, business environment, and data transparency for 25 key Frontier Market countries in our sample.
February 8, 2018
• Higher U.S. wage data may have been a catalyst for the equity rout, but rising yields remain a concern • Real rates rising faster than inflation expectations • Can credit markets and emerging markets remain resilient despite turbulence? • ETPs to face higher scrutiny after spike in VIX and liquidation of short volatility ETPs


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