Documents & Resources

October 6, 2015

Are institutional investors capitulating? While both retail and institutional fund investors reduced exposure to EM assets in Q3, around 75% of the EM fund outflows since late June was attributable to institutional selling. The relatively sharp reversal in institutional fund flows in Q3 (compared to retail investors) suggests that institutions might have been the main driver of the record portfolio outflows of $40 billion in 2015Q3, as noted in our latest Capital Flows Report.

October 5, 2015

The interaction between low inflation/deflation and rising non-financial sector debt in both mature and emerging economies is likely to weigh on global growth prospects—especially as monetary policy may be reaching a point of diminishing returns.

October 1, 2015

* Markets hope for better in Q4
* German growth prospects—running out of diesel?
* EM capital flows—deepening drought
* EM corporate leverage continues to climb
* India—RBI sees the light

September 24, 2015

*Risk-off as markets yearn for direction
*IIF Flows Alert: EM outflows resume
*September PMIs—decoupling continues

September 17, 2015

In this edition of the Weekly Insight, we discuss the Fed's decision not to raise interest rates, the diverse inflation picture across countries, China's disappointing activity data, an update on Frontier Asia, and Brazil's response to last week's rating downgrade.

September 10, 2015

* Markets say “no”
* Fed – In two minds
* EM growth softens in August
* China’s FX reserves take a hit
* Brazil – Going, Going, Gone
* Puerto Rico – Closing the Funding Gap

September 9, 2015

Trends in allocations suggest that fund investors have rebalanced their portfolios towards much safer asset classes over the few past weeks. With outflows from EM funds exceeding $33 billion in August, portfolio allocations to emerging markets are near the nadir of the 2008/9 crisis.

September 3, 2015

* Reassessing prospects for equity markets
* ECB—a dovish birthday party
* EM outlook takes another hit
* Tipping the EM “Beauty Pageant”
* The PREPA bond restructuring—template for Puerto Rico

September 3, 2015

Diverging from fiscal discipline overshadows the near-term. The European Commission, IMF, Romanian central bank and Fiscal Council are concerned about risks Romania faces if it reverses the ongoing consolidation, which has anchored reductions in macroeconomic imbalances since the financial crisis.

September 2, 2015

Seven years after the Great Financial Crisis, the world's equity markets have experienced another bout of sharp sell-offs accompanied by a spike in volatility.  While prices have fallen across the board, the decline in equity and currency values across a range of emerging markets has reached crisis proportions.