Documents & Resources

Publication
August 27, 2015

* Markets find some relief after China turmoil
* Continued EM differentiation under stress
* IIF Tracker shows reversal of EM portfolio flows in August
* China—”two track” monetary easing, more rate cuts ahead
* Ukraine debt restructuring deal—key lesson
* Carbon markets---U.S. sets the stage for Paris

Publication
August 13, 2015

*Markets assess impact of Yuan mini-devaluation
*China—growth momentum turns down again
*EM Asia—living with a weaker RMB
*EM Growth Tracker—further recovery in July, but still subdued
*Greece—growth surprises as program agreement near
*Turkey—Lira hits historic low
*Argentina—primaries kick off presidential race

Publication
August 6, 2015

*Fed Watch intensifies, risk assets recoil
*Portfolio investment in emerging markets continues to suffer
*EM bank lending conditions continue to tighten
*Turkey - Security concerns test investor confidence
*India - RBI On Hold for Now
*Greece - Running out of time
*Ukraine - Debt restructuring negotiations in critical phase
*Puerto Rico - Missed payment of $58 million

Publication
August 3, 2015

In recent weeks, emerging markets have suffered from what appears to be a perfect storm. Over the past three months, EM equities have declined by almost 15%, trading at a price-to-forward-earning ratio of 11x—close to a record discount against mature equity markets, now trading at over 17x. While not as battered, EM bonds have also suffered, with yields rising and sovereign spreads widening to over 400 basis points from 380 basis points in late April.

Publication
July 30, 2015

*Dollar strengthens, EM investors take cover
*U.S.: moderate growth resumes, Fed remains on track
*Caution but not panic: EM portfolio flows subdued in July
*EM portfolio allocations at their lowest level since the crisis
*Brazil: central bank signals end of the monetary tightening cycle
*Greece: the IMF will not join the third Greek bailout—complicating the process
*Puerto Rico: looming nonpayment increases concern about debt burden and serviceability

Publication
July 28, 2015

To better reflect its coverage, we renamed our monthly “Trends in Investment Fund Portfolio Allocation” report as “Portfolio Allocation Trends—A monthly look at mutual fund and ETF portfolio allocations.”

Flows to EM funds have been particularly volatile in recent weeks, amid concerns about Chinese equity markets, developments in Greece, falling commodity prices and shifting perceptions on the timing of the first Fed rate hike.

Publication
July 23, 2015

* Falling commodity prices and looming Fed rate hike hit emerging markets
* Greece—negotiating the third program
* U.S. property market—signs of strength
* Not all is well on the Mexican front
* Bad today, worse tomorrow: pessimistic public perspectives on the global economy

Publication
July 15, 2015

With countries around the world facing the problem of high debt and low nominal GDP growth—some at risk of default—the lessons of Greece, Ukraine and Puerto Rico should be heeded in future debt restructurings.

Publication
July 9, 2015

* Battered markets seek respite
* Beijing shifts into high gear
* Greece— a last minute compromise?
* Oil price drop
* Brazil— political strain raises economic risks
* EM growth gains traction in June

Publication
July 8, 2015

Stock market bubbles rarely deflate gradually. In our last China Spotlight, we focused on the drivers of the rally and the ongoing selloff. This piece covers recent policy actions to support the market and their potential consequences, the risk of a systemic financial crisis and the impact on the macro outlook. We acknowledge the risks that the equity market might continue to sell off in the short term despite aggressive policy moves, but risks of a broad-based financial crisis are low and the overall macro impact should be contained.