Documents & Resources

July 30, 2015

*Dollar strengthens, EM investors take cover
*U.S.: moderate growth resumes, Fed remains on track
*Caution but not panic: EM portfolio flows subdued in July
*EM portfolio allocations at their lowest level since the crisis
*Brazil: central bank signals end of the monetary tightening cycle
*Greece: the IMF will not join the third Greek bailout—complicating the process
*Puerto Rico: looming nonpayment increases concern about debt burden and serviceability

July 28, 2015

To better reflect its coverage, we renamed our monthly “Trends in Investment Fund Portfolio Allocation” report as “Portfolio Allocation Trends—A monthly look at mutual fund and ETF portfolio allocations.”

Flows to EM funds have been particularly volatile in recent weeks, amid concerns about Chinese equity markets, developments in Greece, falling commodity prices and shifting perceptions on the timing of the first Fed rate hike.

July 23, 2015

* Falling commodity prices and looming Fed rate hike hit emerging markets
* Greece—negotiating the third program
* U.S. property market—signs of strength
* Not all is well on the Mexican front
* Bad today, worse tomorrow: pessimistic public perspectives on the global economy

July 15, 2015

With countries around the world facing the problem of high debt and low nominal GDP growth—some at risk of default—the lessons of Greece, Ukraine and Puerto Rico should be heeded in future debt restructurings.

July 9, 2015

* Battered markets seek respite
* Beijing shifts into high gear
* Greece— a last minute compromise?
* Oil price drop
* Brazil— political strain raises economic risks
* EM growth gains traction in June

July 8, 2015

Stock market bubbles rarely deflate gradually. In our last China Spotlight, we focused on the drivers of the rally and the ongoing selloff. This piece covers recent policy actions to support the market and their potential consequences, the risk of a systemic financial crisis and the impact on the macro outlook. We acknowledge the risks that the equity market might continue to sell off in the short term despite aggressive policy moves, but risks of a broad-based financial crisis are low and the overall macro impact should be contained.

July 2, 2015

The recent drop in Chinese equities is a healthy correction after a sharp sentiment fueled rally. Continued near-term volatility seems likely, but at lower valuations the market should find support from recent policy measures. Longer-term prospects remain promising as the market is opened and its infrastructure improves.

July 2, 2015

*Uneasy markets ahead of the Greek referendum
*Greek referendum: “YES” ahead by a nose
*China—continuing monetary easing
*U.S. labor market tightening—steady as she goes
*India—monsoon melodies
*Malaysia gets a ratings boost

June 25, 2015

*Risk rally stalls as markets focus on Fed, Greece
*QE made in Frankfurt gets good reviews
*Global Growth - A mixed bag
*Greece - down to the wire...yet again!
*Japan - Growth Strategy 3.0
*TPP - Finding a way forward
*Enhancing the role of Europe’s capital markets
*FinTech in Frankfurt

June 24, 2015

The European Commission’s proposed Capital Markets Union (CMU) is an ambitious and broadly welcome initiative. Strong capital markets—as a complement to bank lending—would promote financial stability and foster job creation and economic growth throughout Europe.