The Global Capital Markets team monitors developments in international financial markets across equity, fixed-income, credit, FX, commodities and derivatives. We provide independent, timely analysis with a focus on identifying potential systemic risks.  Looking at mature, emerging and frontier markets, our publications also offer regular views on national-level debt dynamics, banking sector trends and local market development. Cross-cutting themes include the impact of regulatory change and new financial technologies, as well as infrastructure investment and green finance.

Documents & Resources

June 19, 2018
Heightened market anxiety over further escalation in U.S.-China retaliation provoked a sharp reversal in EM portfolio flows.
June 13, 2018
Emerging markets are increasingly faced with aging populations, with old-age dependency ratios projected to grow faster than those in mature markets
June 7, 2018
Investors pour money into U.S. stocks and bonds. Many Euro Area banks still have significant exposure to domestic sovereign debt. Sizing up EM inflation risk. Robust portfolio debt and equity inflows to China
June 7, 2018
After hitting an 18-month low in May, non-resident portfolio flows to EMs have shown tentative signs of recovery this week
June 6, 2018
With the IIF Flows Alert 2.0, we extend our daily flows coverage by adding daily estimates of portfolio equity flows for China, Vietnam, and Taiwan (Province of China)
June 6, 2018
With EM currencies under pressure, EM fund outflows suggest investors are cutting exposure—particularly to bonds; Some evidence of "herding" behavior during recent episodes of market turbulence—will it persist?
May 17, 2018
This short presentation highlights the key features of the IIF’s quarterly Global Debt Monitor
May 10, 2018
Flows to emerging market investment funds suggest continued belief in the EM growth story. Investors require more. compensation for short-term local currency risk, but more sanguine on longer term. Current commodity cycle—higher oil prices, low agricultural prices—generally supportive for EM. With supply on the rise, where will demand for U.S. Treasuries come from?
May 8, 2018
Given the more challenging landscape, with a stronger USD and rising U.S. rates, we have cut our forecasts for non-resident portfolio flows to emerging markets. Banking and FDI flows however should be resilient.
May 3, 2018
We update our EM scorecard to put in perspective vulnerabilities from financing needs, reserve adequacy, asset valuation, institutional quality, and exposure to a U.S.-led rise in trade tensions. We find that Ukraine, China, Argentina, South Africa, and Turkey appear most vulnerable to changes in risk appetite, while Russia, Czech Republic, Colombia, Brazil and Philippines appear less at risk.

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