The Global Capital Markets team monitors developments in international financial markets across equity, fixed-income, credit, FX, commodities and derivatives. We provide independent, timely analysis with a focus on identifying potential systemic risks.  Looking at mature, emerging and frontier markets, our publications also offer regular views on national-level debt dynamics, banking sector trends and local market development. Cross-cutting themes include the impact of regulatory change and new financial technologies, as well as infrastructure investment and green finance.

Documents & Resources

May 26, 2016

* Equities in a sunnier mood
* May flash PMIs—diverging paths
* Brazil—a win for the government
* The Greek deal—disbursement welcome, but not much debt relief
* Our Madrid SMM—macro, markets, politics, fintech!

May 20, 2016

The consequences of a British vote to leave the EU would be felt across the global economy and financial markets, and have profound political implications for Europe. From the perspective of the private-sector financial community, we see few positive post-Brexit scenarios.

May 12, 2016

* Fresh impetus in the search for yield
* U.S. monetary policy--recent data likely to reinforce Fed patience
* More stable China capital flows—for now
* Saudi Arabia—strong determination to reform
* EM bank lending conditions deteriorate further
* Brazil — A new boss in town

May 8, 2016

We estimate that China saw net capital outflows of $25 billion in April. Despite some moderation in recent months, this marks the 25th consecutive month of net outflows from China.

May 5, 2016

* Investors not finding much good news
* Turkey—moving towards presidential rule
* Spain—uncertain politics, resilient economy
* Puerto Rico—grappling with default
* China—higher onshore bond yields

May 3, 2016

Helped by dovish central banks, rising commodity prices and a softer USD, EM funds attracted net inflows of over $5 billion in April, accounting for more than 70% of total fund flows into mature and emerging markets.

May 2, 2016

As the credit cycle ages, following years of record-setting bond issuance, there are growing concerns about signs of stress in corporate balance sheets—notably in the high-yield sector and in many emerging markets. In the high-yield sector, rising default rates pose a particular challenge in a slow-growth environment. For emerging markets borrowers, the growing debt burden will weigh on corporate creditworthiness and EM growth going forward.

April 28, 2016

* What next for the rally?
* Japan—BoJ holds back
* Fed—tip-toeing in the face of soft data
* Brazil—no easy task ahead
* Saudi Arabia—a new vision to transform the economy

April 27, 2016

The Chinese bond market has grown quickly and the recent opening of the markets to foreign investors is a game changer. However, the regulatory environment has yet to be simplified and significant obstacles remain. Additional spread widening cannot be ruled out, but risks of widespread defaults are low.

April 25, 2016

Risk assets, particularly emerging markets, have put in a strong performance year to date. Our latest Chartbook looks at some of the factors behind the risk rally, and whether it is likely to hold up.

EXPERTS

Executive Managing Director, Global Capital Markets
+1-202-682-7449
htran@iif.com
Senior Director
Global Capital Markets
+1-202-857-3325
sgibbs@iif.com
Deputy Director
Global Capital Markets
+1-202-857-3321
etiftik@iif.com
Financial Economist
Global Capital Markets
+1-202-857-3333
jstallings@iif.com
Associate Policy Advisor
Global Capital Markets
+1-202-684-7446
jpoljak@iif.com
Senior Research Analyst
Global Capital Markets
+1-202-684-7443
fnguyen@iif.com
Research Analyst
Global Capital Markets
+1-202-857-3309
kmahmood@iif.com