Documents & Resources

February 2, 2016

Along with the perception of deterioration in fundamentals and growth prospects in many economies, scarcer central bank liquidity has induced a correction in asset values. This correction seems to have gathered pace since the turn of the year—with a clear risk of overshooting on the downside.

February 1, 2016

Unfavorable withholding tax regimes could reduce the attractiveness of local currency government bonds for non-residential investors and hinder both investor base diversification and secondary bond market liquidity.

January 26, 2016

A renewed rise in global risk aversion--triggered by developments in China, the recent slide in oil prices, and rising market volatility--has prompted investors to shift out of equity funds into safe-haven U.S. and Japanese bond funds.

January 21, 2016
  • Stock price slump brings valuations closer to fundamentals
  • No respite for emerging market capital flows
January 20, 2016

One year after the ECB’s unprecedented QE decision, the Governing Council continues to face the challenges of low inflation and moderate growth when it meets on Thursday, January 21st.

January 19, 2016

A very bearish start to the year for equity markets around the world, as China worries and slumping commodity prices pose increasing risks for global growth prospects. With China at the epicenter of recent market strains, spillovers have kept emerging markets under pressure.

January 19, 2016

Net capital outflows from emerging markets in 2015 were even larger than we previously thought. We expect EM capital flows to remain under pressure in 2016, although the pace of net outflows should diminish.

January 7, 2016

*Markets fasten seatbelts
*China - a New Year hangover
*FOMC minutes reaffirm dovish Fed
*Update on Ukraine

January 5, 2016

2016 has started with a "big bang." The conflict in the Middle East has ratcheted up with Saudi Arabia's execution of a Shiite cleric. In the first trading day of 2016, China halted stock trading after a 7% decline, triggered in part by a lower than expected manufacturing PMI.

December 17, 2015

Although data on domestic bank credit and bond financing show a slower pace of accumulation, total EM leverage has continued its upward trend, surpassing $58 trillion (nearly 200% of EM GDP) in H1 2015. Firm-level data on net debt suggest that large mining, material and construction firms could face debt servicing difficulties in an environment of slow profit growth and higher U.S. rates.