The Global Capital Markets team monitors developments in international financial markets across equity, fixed-income, credit, FX, commodities and derivatives. We provide independent, timely analysis with a focus on identifying potential systemic risks.  Looking at mature, emerging and frontier markets, our publications also offer regular views on national-level debt dynamics, banking sector trends and local market development. Cross-cutting themes include the impact of regulatory change and new financial technologies, as well as infrastructure investment and green finance.

Documents & Resources

October 10, 2018
EM portfolio flows turned negative again in early October, following inflows of $7.9 billion in September.
October 4, 2018
Volte-face in USD and bond yields has global ripple effects; late-cycle signals for the U.S. economy; spoiler alert: downgrade to our 2019 forecasts in the latest edition of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets; investor differentiation persists, but higher oil/softer non-oil commodity prices would hurt many EMs
September 27, 2018
Profit repatriation slows—a potential trigger to rebalance away from U.S. equities ; Sharp divergence in shadow policy rates; Wide valuation gap between U.S. and non-U.S. equities—how long will it persist?; Green shoots in capital flows to emerging markets
September 20, 2018
Overall non-resident capital flows to FMs are estimated to rise modestly in 2018 on the back of a strong rebound in flows to Qatar. However, flows to other frontier markets are projected to decline by nearly 20%.
September 17, 2018
This short note provides an update to the FM scorecard rankings first published in February 2018: these latest findings suggest that Bahrain, Pakistan, Zambia, Ghana and Tunisia are most susceptible to economic and financial shocks, but we see fewer vulnerabilities for a subset of FM countries, including Qatar, Kazakhstan, Serbia, Croatia, and Kuwait.
September 4, 2018
A year after the decision to phase out Libor, there has been good progress on alternative reference rates. However, key challenges remain including the transition of financial contracts and the need to create liquid futures markets.
August 15, 2018
EM portfolio flows have slumped in recent days amid spillover from Turkey. South Africa and China hit hardest. Other EM Asian countries also saw moderate outflows. In contrast, Brazil, Thailand and Qatar saw net inflows
August 9, 2018
Fund investors push US portfolio allocations near post-election highs amid signs of economic strength, trade uncertainty; The mood remains cautious on emerging markets, though fund investors are seeking relative winners in a trade war scenario; More signs of risk aversion—bonds over equities, investment grade over high-yield, and USD over local currency EM debt
July 12, 2018
Potential impact of tariffs makes companies more cautious on future earnings. Pressure for rate hikes—angst for many EM policymakers. Impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports and Chinese tariffs on U.S. imports—double whammy for some. Lower liquidity in EM bond markets could mean more volatility ahead. Time to pay the piper—highlights from our new Global Debt Monitor
July 9, 2018
Global debt rose by over $8 trillion in Q1 2018 to over $247 trillion (318% of GDP). We highlight risks for borrowers reliant on variable-rate debt, as well as higher USD funding costs for EM and other non-U.S. borrowers.

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