The Global Capital Markets team monitors developments in international financial markets across equity, fixed-income, credit, FX, commodities and derivatives. We provide independent, timely analysis with a focus on identifying potential systemic risks.  Looking at mature, emerging and frontier markets, our publications also offer regular views on national-level debt dynamics, banking sector trends and local market development. Cross-cutting themes include the impact of regulatory change and new financial technologies, as well as infrastructure investment and green finance.

Documents & Resources

August 15, 2018
EM portfolio flows have slumped in recent days amid spillover from Turkey. South Africa and China hit hardest. Other EM Asian countries also saw moderate outflows. In contrast, Brazil, Thailand and Qatar saw net inflows
August 9, 2018
Fund investors push US portfolio allocations near post-election highs amid signs of economic strength, trade uncertainty; The mood remains cautious on emerging markets, though fund investors are seeking relative winners in a trade war scenario; More signs of risk aversion—bonds over equities, investment grade over high-yield, and USD over local currency EM debt
July 12, 2018
Potential impact of tariffs makes companies more cautious on future earnings. Pressure for rate hikes—angst for many EM policymakers. Impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports and Chinese tariffs on U.S. imports—double whammy for some. Lower liquidity in EM bond markets could mean more volatility ahead. Time to pay the piper—highlights from our new Global Debt Monitor
July 9, 2018
Global debt rose by over $8 trillion in Q1 2018 to over $247 trillion (318% of GDP). We highlight risks for borrowers reliant on variable-rate debt, as well as higher USD funding costs for EM and other non-U.S. borrowers.
July 5, 2018
Tighter financial conditions and ebbing dollar liquidity raise the risk of strains in credit markets; Flattening yield curves weigh on valuations in the banking sector (a big part of many indices); Some emerging markets (including China) have seen rising levels of FX debt in the financial sector ; Earnings forecasts revised down in recent weeks—due in part to escalating trade tensions
June 25, 2018
With trade tensions on the rise, sharp upturn in allocations to U.S. stocks and bonds; Canada, Europe see outflows. Emerging market allocations continue to fall; concern about prospects for EM exporters weighs on equities.
June 19, 2018
Heightened market anxiety over further escalation in U.S.-China retaliation provoked a sharp reversal in EM portfolio flows.
June 13, 2018
Emerging markets are increasingly faced with aging populations, with old-age dependency ratios projected to grow faster than those in mature markets
June 7, 2018
Investors pour money into U.S. stocks and bonds. Many Euro Area banks still have significant exposure to domestic sovereign debt. Sizing up EM inflation risk. Robust portfolio debt and equity inflows to China
June 7, 2018
After hitting an 18-month low in May, non-resident portfolio flows to EMs have shown tentative signs of recovery this week

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