Documents & Resources

November 25, 2015

Market performance in recent weeks reflects continued adjustment to the prospect of a December Fed liftoff--the U.S. yield curve has flattened significantly, while mature market equities have been relatively resilient. As G-3 monetary policy continues to diverge, the U.S. dollar has seen renewed gains in recent weeks. Amid the ongoing supply glut and concern about Chinese growth prospects, broad commodity prices have fallen to their lowest level since 2002. Against this backdrop, rising geopolitical strains have weighed on EM equities.

November 19, 2015
  • Markets comforted by a gradualist Fed
  • Global growth and trade—looking for a silver lining
November 12, 2015

* Markets price in still more divergence in monetary policy
* U.S.—countdown to Fed liftoff has begun
* China—mixed signals
* Russia—bottoming out?
* EM debt — fast approaching 200% of GDP

November 9, 2015

Against the backdrop of a sustained slowdown in growth and capital flows, the spotlight has been on rapidly rising debt levels in emerging markets. To address our member requests, we are introducing a comprehensive debt database based on a variety of data sources with a focus on EM debt dynamics.

November 9, 2015

With slow growth and deflation risk stalking the global economy, high household debt and heavy debt service burdens in a number of mature and EM economies further cloud the outlook--potentially restraining personal consumption and feeding into lackluster economic growth.

November 5, 2015

*Will market optimism hold up?
*Global economy stumbling along
*Global PMIs—looking to turn the corner
*EM bank lending conditions tighten the most since 2011Q4

October 29, 2015

This edition of the Weekly Insight discusses the recent FOMC meeting, the U.S. budget deal, latest happenings out of China, and key takeaways from the Money 20/20 conference in Las Vegas this week.

October 22, 2015

*Markets cheered by the prospect of further ECB QE
*ECB hints at more in December
*Familiar uncertainty as U.S. debt ceiling approaches
*China—slower growth but better economic structure
*Andean central banks—keeping an eye on the ball

October 20, 2015

When the ECB Governing Council meets Thursday, October 22, it will see sluggish inflation—the elephant in the room—as one reason to consider expanding or extending its asset purchase program according to our Dashboard—an intuitive tool to track the success of the ECB’s easing policies in returning inflation to its medium-term target.

October 15, 2015

* Cautious optimism as Fed hikes seen delayed
* Flows Alert—Dovish Fed helps EM flow pick-up
* EM FX borrowing—a look at potential asset-liability mismatches
* Korea—hoping for better