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Macro Notes: Tourism - Downside Risks Dominate Outlook

Tourism will likely be among the last sectors to recover from the COVID-19 shock. The recovery has been slow and uneven, and further warning signs are emerging. We continue to expect a 60-70% drop in tourism revenues in our baseline scenario. Rising infections in the United States and Europe may require renewed lockdowns. Countries like Mexico, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey would be most affected.

China Spotlight: Implications of U.S. Sanctions on Hong Kong 

The Hong Kong Autonomy Act (HKAA) stipulates potentially highly damaging sanctions. At the extreme, the U.S. may disconnect China’s banks and corporates from the U.S. Dollar. Should the conflict escalate, we worry about unintended consequences for global markets.

Economic Views: The EM Local-Currency Bond Sell-Off

  The sell-off in local-currency government bonds has been deep. We construct a new monthly dataset of flows to local bonds, … t...

Briefing Note: Key Digital Finance Themes

This briefing note summarizes some of the key digital finance themes that emerged throughout the Annual Membership Meeting, focusing on six main topical themes that surfaced in various discussions during the weeklong virtual event, including customer-centricity, cross-border standardization, regulatory frameworks, digital identity, ethical use of data, and artificial intelligence.

Oman: Big Challenges, Forceful Response

Progress is being made on fiscal adjustment and structural reforms. The sharp fall in oil revenues will exceed the cut in public spending, leading to a large fiscal deficit. Strong adjustment and partial recovery in oil prices could make the fiscal position more sustainable. 

2020 PCG Report on the Implementation of the Principles 

Building on the quarterly conference calls of the Principles Consultative Group, the 2020 PCG report takes stock of the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the global sovereign debt markets, emerging markets capital flows and debt sustainability, especially in developing countries. 

Summary of 2020 AMM Key Regulatory and Policy Discussions

The IIF Regulatory Affairs Department is pleased to share a comprehensive summary of the key regulatory and policy discussions that took place during the IIF’s 2020 Annual Membership Meeting.

Green Weekly Insight: A Path Towards Inclusive Wealth

More than half of global GDP is nature-dependent, but ecosystem collapse is a risk in a fifth of all countries. Despite the financial materiality of ecosystem risks, financial institutions lack a nature-related risk disclosure framework.

GMV: China and the EM Positioning Overhang

China’s big 2009 stimulus was a major boost for EM, … because it lifted commodity prices and the terms of trade. There is no similar ...

FRT Episode 78: Identity, Inclusion & Interoperability

With the criticality of Digital Identity underlined by the pandemic and recent economic shifts, we discuss the opportunities to support SMEs in the digital economy and promote financial inclusion, and the importance of enabling interoperability.

 

 

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