Facebook YouTube Twitter LinkedIn Menu Chevron Left Chevron Right Arrow Down Arrow Up Plus Plus Plus Plus Plus

Economic Views: Capital Flows and Argentina’s Elections

Resident outflows were a source of pressure in 2018. They are unlikely to abate as the election approaches since Argentina’s electoral cycles often prompt outflows. We are far from the outflows seen in the 2001 crisis, but the external funding picture will remain tough given limited resources left under the IMF program.

CEEMEA Views: Debt Distress in Zambia

Zambia borrowed extensively from abroad after 2015, leading to considerable external financing requirements. Fiscal and monetary policy will have to be contractionary, however, the level of adjustment needed is very large. Thus, Zambia is a prime candidate for an IMF program.

Global Macro Views: Rising Capital Outflows from China

US tariffs should be imposing a strain on China’s balance of payments, most obviously in the current account. But the surplus is rising, in part due to quite healthy exports. Instead, trade tensions may be manifesting in capital outflows, which are above 2012 levels and half 2015/6 levels. Tariffs may be raising RMB depreciation expectations, an issue of great importance to China’s policy makers and the rest of EM.

CEEMEA Views: Automation Risk in CEE

The risk of automation in CEE is relatively low compared to other EMs, but differs considerably within the region, with EU member countries facing less risk. The skill composition of employment appears to play an important role, as does an economy’s relative urbanization and labor market diversification.

Economic Views: Pemex and Mexico's Current Account

Pemex’s woes turned Mexico into an oil importer. The current account could improve significantly if Pemex’s planned output increase materializes. Vulnerability would rise if Pemex underperforms, as gasoline imports would continue growing.

Oil Market: Supply and Demand Likely to Balance

We still expect Brent oil prices to average $65/b in 2019 and $62/b in 2020. Growth in non-OPEC supply combined with deceleration in global oil demand growth in 2019 and 2020, is offsetting upward pressure on oil prices from rising geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply.

FRT Episode 44 – Japanese Edition

Our latest episode of the IIF’s FRT podcast is our inaugural Japanese language edition, featuring IIF experts Junichi Fujimori and Jonathan Fort...

Weekly Insight: More than a trade war

Negative-yielding debt has surged from some $13 trillion in June to over $15 trillion currently as trade tensions bite; Chinese corporates now hold nearly $1.5 trillion in USD debt, with non-financial corporates accounting for over half of that; Carbon emissions per capita are higher in mature markets, while emissions relative to GDP are higher in emerging markets.  However, a look at emissions relative to productivity highlights transition risks for both mature and EM economies; LIBOR transition update: Main Street also needs to move to new risk-free reference rates— key to a smooth transition

Letter Responding to First Comprehensive Report from NGFS

This letter represents the IIF SFWG's reactions to the first comprehensive report from the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening...

Global Macro Views: What Scope for RMB Depreciation?

US tariffs are exerting depreciation pressure on the RMB, which we think could ultimately drive $/CNY well above 7.00. One illustration of that depreciation pressure is a $/CNY rate now back in the upper (weaker) half of the band around the fix. Another visualization are large residuals in our fixing model, which point to policy makers keeping RMB temporarily strong.

 

 

IIF Headquarters
1333 H St NW, Suite 800E
Washington, DC 20005-4770
Tel: +1 202 857-3600
Fax: +1 202 775-1430
Email: info@iif.com

IIF Middle East and Africa
Regional Office
DIFC, The Gate Building,
Level 15
P.O. Box 121208
Dubai, United Arab
Emirates
Tel: +971 4401 9651

IIF Asia Pacific
Regional Office - Beijing
Winland International Finance Centre
Suite F920, 9F
No.7 Jinrong Avenue
Xicheng District, Beijing
100032, PRC
Tel: +86 10 5836 9100
Fax: +86 10 5836 9300

IIF Asia Pacific
Regional Office - Singapore
50 Raffles Place
#22-06 Singapore Land
Tower
Singapore 048623
Tel: +65 6592 5089

IIF European
Representative Office
Square de Meeûs 23
14th Floor
1000 Brussels
Belgium
Tel: +32 2 430 37 08

IIF Regional Office
10 Upper Bank St.
London E14 5NP
Tel: +44 207 006 4173