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Publications

Weekly Insight: Centrifuge

U.S.: $1.5tn in student loans present fiscal risks; $1tn in leveraged loans vulnerable to rising interest rates ; Banking flows to the UK weaken since the Brexit referendum; Inflation under control in most key EMs; but central bank independence under scrutiny in many countries; RMB gains as a global reserve currency; foreign investor demand for bonds shifts from China to other EMs

Global Macro Views: Capital Flows and EM Positioning

Foreign capital flows to EM are a key, but incomplete, part of the positioning story, since they capture buying and selling, but not all the valuation changes in between. We unveil a new database that adds valuation changes to our existing flows work, giving, to our knowledge, the most complete and up-to-date EM positioning snapshot.

Romania: Growth Moderates

Activity will weaken as the fiscal stimulus reaches its limit and consumption contributes less to growth. Without corrective measures, Romania could...

November 2018 EM Growth Tracker

EM Growth Tracker at 3.9% 3m/3m sa ar in November. Decline driven by hard data but offset by improved corporate sentiment. Trade volumes improve, but internal demand is still weak. LatAm and EM Asia trackers decline.

November 2018 Global Regulatory Update and Podcast

The November 2018 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams in regulatory capital, recovery and resolution, accounting, cybersecurity, risk management, digital finance, sustainable finance, AML/CFT, insurance, and upcoming events. 

Economic Views: The Impact of Russia Sanctions

Sanctions depressed capital flows to Russia. Despite banks losing much foreign funding, domestic credit in local currency revived, and lending rates normalized in due course. High reserves cushioned the cost of sanctions, as did robust oil exports and low external debt.

IIF Insurance Update - November/December 2018

The November/December Insurance Update provides targeted updates on IIF insurance activities and events, and highlights relevant IIF publications or related regulatory developments in other fields. 

FRT Episode 19: Live from RiskMinds - Agility and Transformation

Marcus Chromik (Commerzbank CRO) and Harold Marcenaro (BCP Head of Digital Risk) join FRT at the RiskMinds International conference in Amsterdam, sharing their insights with Risk practitioners’ perspectives on the opportunities and challenges in digital transformation (Brad Carr).

Weekly Insight: Wake me up when it's over

Tighter financial conditions, yield curve inversion prompt more bets on a Fed pause. Equity analysts revise down 2019 earnings forecasts; banks underperform. Sharp rebound in EM portfolio flows in November; EM oil importers see the benefit of lower prices. Tax revenues at very high levels—but are governments using them effectively? 

Economic Views: The Impact of Tariffs on China’s Growth

Activity in China is cooling more than GDP suggests, but exports are not the main driver of the slowdown. Tariffs will eventually have an impact on the economy, that we quantify in a simple model of import demand. Growth would fall modestly in a détente scenario, but could drop by 0.5-1pp if trade tensions escalate.

 

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