In a recent Global Macro Views , we have shown that this year's drop in US inflation - arguably one of the key macro surprises of 2017 - is to an impo
We expect an uptick in inflation in coming months, due to a normalization of the price path for specific PCE elements. The drivers behind this process
We have shown that large movements in a handful of categories have thrown off inflation readings in the US and the Euro zone. We look for similar dist
We look more closely at the recent pick up in core inflation, and find that much of it can be explained by just three sectors, all related to tourism.
We update our assessment of the labor market following the latest round of data for August. ' We project the U-3 unemployment rate in a range of 4.0 -
The striking slowdown in world trade growth over the past five years has been the subject of much research. In the first of a two-part series on trade
We provide some background for the discussion on taxing foreign held income. We document the size and nature of reinvested earnings that US-based firm
Since our initial piece, the participation rate has drifted up, a trend that - should it continue - would tend to slow further declines in the unemplo