Key Issues

May 2012 Global Economic MonitorMember only content

Tensions in the Euro Area are coming to the fore again forcefully after a relatively calm first quarter. Market sentiment has taken a turn for the worse, driven by election outcomes, renewed concerns about the health of the Spanish banking sector and discussions about Greece leaving the Euro Area. In general, these developments fit into our storyline that continued concern about the Euro Area crisis is keeping European growth moderate and volatile for the foreseeable future. However, while fiscal consolidation and tight credit conditions will limit the upside for growth, each bout of risk aversion poses a test to the lower growth bound, notably now the scenario of a Greek exit from the monetary union.

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IIF Weekly Wrap - May 18, 2012

May 18, 2012 — In this week’s presentation, IIF Chief Economist and Deputy Managing Director Phil Suttle covers four issues of particular interest to the world economy this past week: (1) the May 2012 GEM, (2) necessary policy changes in Europe (3) TARGET2 imbalances, and (4) new economic reports.

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Charles Dallara Highlights Critical Issues for Greece and the Euro Area

May 16, 2012 — In an address today in Dublin at The Institute of International and European Affairs, IIF Managing Director Charles Dallara noted the importance of providing the Greek people with the time to resolve the crucial issues that they face. He underscored the most significant costs to Greece, the European Union and indeed the wider global economy, of a Greek exit from the Euro Area. More broadly, Mr. Dallara spoke about the need for a rebalancing of economic policies in Europe in order to overcome the major challenges that European economies now confront. The full speech can be heard here.

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Kevin Nixon Joins IIF as Deputy Managing Director with Responsibilities for Regulatory Policy and IIF Member Relations

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May 10, 2012 — The Institute of International Finance today announced that Kevin Nixon will be assuming a new position at the IIF on July 11, 2012, as Deputy Managing Director with responsibilities for regulatory policy and IIF membership relations. Mr. Nixon, an Australian citizen, is currently Executive Director, Head of Regulatory Reform, for Westpac Banking Corporation.

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A Major step for Building Istanbul as a Financial Center

May 9, 2012 — International and Turkish authorities in banking and finance attend the “Building Istanbul as a Key Financial Center” conference, hosted by the Institute of International Finance and Akbank. Participants at the meeting in Istanbul debated the acceleration processes for building the city’s role as a global financial center.

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Charles Dallara interview with Jon Snow of Channel 4

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May 14, 2012 — As financial markets slump, doom grips as Greece seen on the tip of disaster, so Charles Dallara faces one of the UK’s toughest news interviewers, Jon Snow of Channel 4 on the evening news. Watch the interview here.

May 2012 Capital Markets Monitor

Global Growth Resilient, Except for Europe

Since the Great Financial Crisis, world financial markets have alternated between risk-on, risk-off (“RoRo”) modes. Recent data suggest that several RoRo triggers may have provided a downside cushion for the global economy—the exception being Europe. There, austerity seems to triumph over growth, perpetuating the sovereign debt/banking problems. It has also generated growing popular resistance to the current policy prescription of focusing on austerity to solve the sovereign debt crisis. This has elevated uncertainty about possible changes to the policy approach, particularly in the wake of recent election results in France and Greece.

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From the Financial Times: Clock is ticking to apply EM debt lessons to euro crisis

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May 2, 2012 — In this Financial Times Market Insight, William R. Rhodes, IIF First Vice Chairman Emeritus, urges “the leaders of Europe and the US learn from the experiences of the key emerging market economies in addressing today’s crucial difficulties.”

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Euro Briefing: The Anesthetic Wears Off a Little

Developments since the last Euro Briefing underline that the resolution of the Euro Area crisis will be protracted and painful: Greece is completing a debt exchange that involves large write offs for bondholders, but which was overwhelmingly voluntary in nature; the ECB’s balance sheet has ballooned to more than 30% of GDP; there is renewed concern in the situation in Spain; and there is significant political uncertainty with both Greek and French elections to be held on May 6th.

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IIF Sees Rising GCC Oil Production. Foreign Exchange Reserves on Path to Exceed $2 Trillion by the end of 2013

April 18, 2012 — The Gulf Cooperation Council countries of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, possessing 40% of proven world oil reserves, have spare oil production capacity now of 2.5 to 3 million barrels per day and are positioned to meet any possible shortfall in supplies to world markets as a result of possible declines in Iranian exports as a result of sanctions, said the Institute of International Finance.

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Emerging Markets Bank Lending Conditions Survey - 2012Q1

The IIF index of emerging market bank lending conditions (EMLC) remained below 50 (implying an overall deterioration) for the third consecutive quarter. That said, however, the global EMLC index recovered most of the previous quarter’s drop, rising 48.6, from 44.7 in 2011Q4 and 49.1 in 2011Q3. This change was mainly the result of funding conditions, which tightened somewhat further in 2012Q1, but by nowhere near the amount recorded in 2011Q4. This highlights the fact that policy measures taken by central banks in both emerging and, especially, in mature economies in recent months (especially by the ECB) have helped stem the deterioration.

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IIF Calls for Strengthened International Economic Policy Coordination

April 9, 2012 — In a Policy Letter released today, the IIF stressed that the global economy faces significant challenges, despite some recent encouraging signs. The letter emphasized that risks continue to emanate from the oil price increases, deleveraging pressures, and the lingering weaknesses in the U.S. housing market. In addition, the IIF noted that while progress has been made in confronting the Euro Area sovereign debt crisis, Europe’s difficulties are having spillover effects on global trade flows and international funding conditions, including trade finance.

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Events

2012 IIF Spring Membership Meeting

June 6-8, 2012

Copenhagen, Denmark

We are delighted to have Danske Bank as the Co-Host of this meeting. With the support from Danske Bank and our other Lead Sponsors, DNB, Nordea, and SEB, we are designing a program to appeal to our international membership while having a focus on the Nordic region and Europe more broadly. We hope you will join us for this important gathering of the Institute’s membership along with key policymakers.

2012 IIF Executive Program on Private Banking & Wealth Management

June 18-21, 2012

Zurich, Switzerland

The key strength of this program, offered by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) in cooperation with Credit Suisse, is to provide direct insights by the senior executives of leading global wealth management and private banking firms. It will address issues through classroom sessions based on case studies and through lively discussions. As such, the program provides participants a unique opportunity to interact with seasoned experts, executives and practitioners in the industry while exposing them to competing approaches and strategies in the new challenging environment.

30th Anniversary Membership Meeting

October 11-13, 2012

Tokyo, Japan

This is our first IIF Membership Meeting in Japan and will take place in conjunction with the Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank. We expect a large gathering of the world’s leading bankers, investors, insurers, and policymakers to attend what has become the pre-eminent annual private sector event in the global financial calendar. This will also be a special occasion for the IIF as we are celebrating our 30th Anniversary.



Other Events

May 16-17

Beirut, Lebanon

May 31 - Jun 1

Miami, Florida