EM Growth Tracker at 6.1% 3m/3m sa ar in April. Big decline in hard data leads fall in tracker. China IP and EM Ex. China IP growth differential expands. All our variables for exports and imports contract. Regional Trackers across the board decline.
It is a highly uncertain and eventful time, even by Trump Administration standards. In this short note, we highlight some of the upcoming events we're watching closely.
We have been writing on the growing vulnerabilities across EM where we have been focused on two countries: Turkey and Argentina. Given recent developments in the latter, this note revisits three key issues. First, Peso weakness has closed half the overvaluation we previously estimated, but some overvaluation remains and is in many respects the key underlying issue. Second, a $30 bn bailout may suffice for stabilization, but is arguably at the low end. Third, given rising global rates, Argentina is potentially the tip of the iceberg in EM.
