The Institute of International Finance

Global Macro Views: Weaponizing the RMB

In the wake of the latest escalation in China-US trade tensions, RMB has not resumed its sharp devaluation from a few months ago. This is because that devaluation anticipated the latest round of tariffs, pricing in a 10 percent tariff on the additional $200 bn in Chinese products. But a 25 percent tariff on those products is not priced into the currency and could start another round of RMB devaluation similar to this summer. We turned more constructive on the EM currency picture a few weeks ago, but see another round of RMB devaluation here as the principal risk factor.
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Weekly Insight: Double Trouble

Further escalation in trade tensions, growing evidence of a global liquidity drawdown. Upward revisions to U.S. corporate earnings, but less optimism on Chinese earnings prospects. Respite for emerging markets, though downside risks loom for EM capital flows. Frontier markets have issued $340bn in Eurobonds since 2010—ebbing liquidity leaves many vulnerable.
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Capital Flows to Frontier Markets: Bracing for Spillovers

Overall non-resident capital flows to FMs are estimated to rise modestly in 2018 on the back of a strong rebound in flows to Qatar. However, flows to other frontier markets are projected to decline by nearly 20%.
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2018 IIF Annual Membership Meeting

October 12, 2018 to October 13, 2018

Bali, Indonesia
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Latest Research Reports

Economic Views: Iran - The Economy is Contracting

September 24, 2018

Re-imposition of sanctions have begun to cut oil and condensates exports. A rapidly depreciating currency is feeding into soaring inflation and contraction in the economy. Despite rising economic difficulties, the regime is still unwilling to reopen discussions with the U.S.

Global Macro Views: Weaponizing the RMB

September 25, 2018

In the wake of the latest escalation in China-US trade tensions, RMB has not resumed its sharp devaluation from a few months ago. This is because that devaluation anticipated the latest round of tariffs, pricing in a 10 percent tariff on the additional $200 bn in Chinese products.

Tanzania: Growth Remains Strong

September 21, 2018

An acceleration in investment should lift this year’s real GDP growth to 7.4%, but it will also moderately widen the current account and fiscal deficits. Sustainable growth will require further efforts to lower the high share of NPLs and an improved business climate.

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Sticky Notes: September 21, 2018

September 21, 2018

In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at the U.S.-China trade dispute, Trump's love/hate relationship with big tech, index reclassification, and debt in frontier markets.

Weekly Insight: Double Trouble

September 20, 2018

Further escalation in trade tensions, growing evidence of a global liquidity drawdown. Upward revisions to U.S. corporate earnings, but less optimism on Chinese earnings prospects. Respite for emerging markets, though downside risks loom for EM capital flows.

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Recent Advocacy Work

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FRT Episode 7: FRT en Espanol

September 21, 2018

Spanish language edition: la compartición de datos, la aplicación de Ingeligencia Artificial y Machine Learning y la adopción de tecnologías de computación en la nube (Pablo Urbiola, Daniel Pujazón, Natalia Bailey, Jaime Vázquez)

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Liability and Consumer Protection in Open Banking

September 18, 2018

The IIF identifies some of the sources of new risks for consumers in open banking ecosystems, how these can be mitigated, key features in compensation and dispute resolution, and recommendations for protecting users of open banking systems.

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FRT Episode 6: Cloud in Financial Services

September 13, 2018

Cloud’s benefits and risk, barriers to adoption, and the criticality of CSPs (Brad Carr, Daniel Pujazon & Jaime Vazquez)

September 2018 Global Regulatory Update and Podcast

September 6, 2018

The September 2018 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams in regulatory capital, recovery and resolution, disclosure and accounting, cybersecurity, digital finance, insurance, and upcoming events.

IIF/GFMA Letter on FSB Infrastructure Finance Consultation

September 4, 2018

The IIF and GFMA submitted comments to the FSB on their report and consultation on the impact of regulatory reforms on infrastructure financing.

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Upcoming Events

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Emerging & Frontier Forum: Accessing the World’s Fastest Growth Markets

New York City

September 27

2018 IIF Annual Membership Meeting

Bali, Indonesia

October 12 to October 13

IIF European Chief Risk Officer Forum

Paris, France

October 22

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Re-imposition of sanctions have begun to cut Iran's oil and condensates exports. t.co/z6LVN5splJ

13 hours
@IIF

Steadily growing external debt is affordable, as half of Tanzania’s debt is concessional, with no or minimal intere… t.co/WCFMEyjSgj

1 day
@IIF

#Tanzania has been growing by 7% since 2010 despite it being among the worst business environments in sub-Saharan A… t.co/S63g4OCbI1

2 days
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Our latest edition of Sticky Notes is out, covering the U.S.-China trade dispute, Trump’s love/hate relationship wi… t.co/a4YvNrtdFJ

2 days
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Sharing risks with the broader EM world, frontier markets have seen fund flows to bonds and stocks tapering off sig… t.co/KKevJ5GVDO

4 days
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Strong rebound in flows to Qatar support non-resident capital flows, but other frontier markets see 20% decline. t.co/UwIrB2LZpV

4 days
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Fifth decline in six months sees tracker reach 2-year low. As LatAm’s growth rebounds, EM Europe & Africa hit lowes… t.co/ZLaAmHUIN1

5 days
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#MENA resident capital outflows are increasing, as the current account surpluses of the GCC countries are improving… t.co/9Cj8mmIlSW

5 days
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We see #MENA capital flows rising to $182 billion in 2018 driven by sovereign issuance and banking flows. t.co/u18NyEmiGW

6 days
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Tax cuts have stoked earnings optimism – but is the boost beginning to wear off? #tcja t.co/7bNMkt5Y51

6 days
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Surveys and other “soft data” have been much stronger than hard data—suggesting that any jolt to investor confidenc… t.co/246vzQVTOU

6 days
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Valuations look stretched in the U.S. and Europe but bargains can be found among #EmergingMarkets t.co/B89fbj7sI9

1 week
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#SovereignDebt service costs have risen across #FrontierMarkets. Future growth prospects will be key for debt susta… t.co/RsKxveFXff

1 week
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Momentum in cyclical stocks is stalling amid concerns about slower growth in 2019. t.co/r6afjalo0Z

1 week
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Our latest edition of Sticky Notes is out, covering NAFTA negotiations, next steps for Brexit, the latest U.S. trad… t.co/H0kx9zQGyi

1 week
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Since Q1 2017, Oman, Tunisia, and Vietnam saw the biggest increase in debt-to-GDP ratios while Croatia, Kazakhstan… t.co/13NKvZ4o4K

1 week
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Total debt in #FrontierMarkets surpassed $2.8 trillion in Q1 2018, at 120% of GDP t.co/w41Uonzyzh

1 week
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Tune in to our sixth episode of FRT. We discuss the potential of cloud in financial services, and examine the regul… t.co/8kYpkWhoZp

1 week