The Argentinian Peso and Turkish Lira have fallen sharply this year, but spillovers to the broader emerging markets complex have been limited. We examine contagion risk through the lens of non-resident portfolio flows. The pace of these flows rose sharply in the wake of the China scare in 2015/6, even as those flows became more concentrated in a few emerging markets, including Argentina, South Africa, Colombia, Egypt, Mexico and Indonesia.
EM bank lending conditions in easing territory for three consecutive quarters. Credit standards tightened, demand for loans also in tightening territory. The index for NPLs in positive territory, suggesting a reduction in non-performing loans. Sub-Saharan Africa shows easing conditions for the first time in 10 quarters as other EM regions also enjoy a prolonged period of easing. Yet, recent volatility in EM suggests a period of tighter conditions looms.
All eyes on EM debt as U.S. rates rise; EM debt ratios look more sensitive to USD strength than in 2009; Time for a pivot to equities? Stocks looking cheaper as multiples compress…; EM banks look increasingly reliant on wholesale and foreign funding—a potential source of market stress; Policy uncertainty on the rise on both sides of the Atlantic
