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Research

Frontier Market Debt Monitor: Rising Debt And Climate Risk

Driven mainly by government borrowing, the debt to GDP ratio in frontier markets hit a fresh all-time high of 114% in Q3 2019, with total debt nearing $3.2 trillion, up by nearly $75 billion in the first three quarters of 2019. Government debt is now over 51% of GDP. Zambia, Mozambique, Bahrain and Oman have seen the largest rise since Q3 2018. This piece includes a special feature on debt and climate risks in low-income countries, where external debt is on the rise, though private creditors have cut exposure—reflecting concerns about debt transparency/sustainability and growing awareness of climate vulnerabilities.

IIF White Paper - Market Interventions: U.S. Sanctions on Russia

Economic sanctions are a critical element of the foreign policy toolkit of both national governments and international bodies. Their value lies in the fact that they are perceived to be a lower-cost and lower-risk way to change another country’s behavior compared to, alternatively, some form of military action. However, sanctions are a form of government market intervention and can have significant unintended and uncertain consequences—particularly if they are placed on an economy highly integrated into the global economy and the international financial system. In this respect, the measures taken by the United States and its allies against Russia beginning in 2014 represented a paradigm shift. They proved to be effective in limiting the flow of foreign funding into the country, forcing substantial fiscal adjustment and the deleveraging of corporates. Partially as a result of sanctions, GDP growth has remained underwhelming for many years.

Economic Views: India’s Challenging Fiscal Outlook
We assess the medium-term implications of India’s budget, … in the context of high public debt and gross financing needs. Planned fiscal tightening will only lower debt if growth is high.  Low foreign participation helps mitigate refinancing risk, … but high fiscal d...
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Advocacy

Sustainable Finance In Focus: Back to Basics - The Pyramid

As part of our new line of sustainability-themed research, we are launching a series of short “back-to-basics” notes, aiming to bring some clarity to the complex ecosystem of climate data, risk assessment methodologies, taxonomy and reporting. Our Sustainable Finance Pyramid sets out a framework of “building blocks” for the assessment of climate-related risks—and opportunities.  This toolkit supports effective disclosure—vital for regulators, policymakers and investors. 

IIF Responds to Basel Voluntary Sovereign Exposures Disclosure Consultation 

The Institute of International Finance on February 14th submitted a response to the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision Consultative Document on Voluntary Disclosure of Sovereign Exposures. 

Green Weekly Insight: Mind the climate finance gap!

Daunting sums: $3.5 trillion of investments in climate finance needed annually until 2050 to limit warming to 1.5C; Climate finance flows on the rise: global annual investment in clean energy hits $360bn in 2019; IIF Sustainable Finance Pyramid Framework — how data, methodologies, taxonomy, and disclosure fit together; Sharp increase in green bond issuance in 2019 to $255bn; emerging market green bond issuance hits a new high; The corporate sector has been the main driver of green bond volumes, as sovereign issuance remains lackluster
 

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