The Institute of International Finance

Global Macro Views: Output Gaps and Euro Fair Value

The Euro zone current account balance is in sizeable surplus, which some see as a sign the Euro is undervalued and needs to rise. But the headline surplus in part reflects persistently large output gaps, which may be inflating the external balance by depressing import volumes. We derive a cyclically-adjusted current account balance for the Euro zone, which turns out to be negative, potentially signaling Euro overvaluation.
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Global Debt Monitor - November 2018

Global debt declined by $1.5 trillion to $247 trillion in Q2 2018—mainly driven by mature markets. In contrast, EM debt continues to rise, topping $71 trillion in Q2.
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Global Macro Views: Euro Periphery Output Gaps

Estimates for Euro periphery output gaps are oddly small, even where real GDP has fallen substantially in the last 10 years. These estimates implicitly assume lots of activity is permanently lost, with potential “bending” down, almost as if to validate low actual GDP. The reality is that economic slack on the periphery is likely still sizeable and holding down underlying inflation despite unprecedented ECB easing.
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FRT Episode 14: IIF Digital Symposium in Brussels (English)

At the IIF Digital Finance Regulation Symposium in Brussels, panelists Bob Contri (Deloitte), Andres Wolberg-Stok (Citibank) and Patrick Maes (Credit Suisse) share their top takeaways from the discussions on Open Banking, Cloud and Machine Learning (Brad Carr)
Read more about FRT Episode 14: IIF Digital Symposium in Brussels (English)
A New Kind of Conglomerate: Bigtech in China

With business models built around advanced tech and data, and with the advantages of an immense domestic market, a supportive policy environment, and ample capital, Chinese bigtechs are constructing a new corporate model—one with reach into virtually every sector of the economy and state.
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Latest Research Reports

Global Macro Views: Output Gaps and Euro Fair Value

November 20, 2018

The Euro zone current account balance is in sizeable surplus, which some see as a sign the Euro is undervalued and needs to rise. But the headline surplus in part reflects persistently large output gaps, which may be inflating the external balance by depressing import volumes.

Public

Sticky Notes: November 16, 2018

November 16, 2018

In this edition of Sticky Notes, we look at takeaways from the U.S. mid-term elections, the latest U.S.-China trade talks, Brazil in the wake of a newly elected government, and U.S. soybean exports.

Global Macro Views: Euro Periphery Output Gaps

November 19, 2018

Estimates for Euro periphery output gaps are oddly small, even where real GDP has fallen substantially in the last 10 years. These estimates implicitly assume lots of activity is permanently lost, with potential “bending” down, almost as if to validate low actual GDP.

Economic Views: Exposure to Russia Sanctions

November 15, 2018

Sanctions lowered capital flows to Russia permanently, limiting severely the ability of banks to borrow abroad. Risk of new sanctions put pressure on government flows. We assess scope for contagion from expanded sanctions.

Global Debt Monitor - November 2018

November 13, 2018

Global debt declined by $1.5 trillion to $247 trillion in Q2 2018—mainly driven by mature markets. In contrast, EM debt continues to rise, topping $71 trillion in Q2.

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Recent Advocacy Work

November 2018 Global Regulatory Update

November 16, 2018

The November 2018 IIF Global Regulatory Update provides updates on current work streams in regulatory capital, recovery and resolution, accounting, cybersecurity, risk management, digital finance, sustainable finance, AML/CFT, insurance, and upcoming events.

Public

FRT Episode 14: IIF Digital Symposium in Brussels (English)

November 5, 2018

At the IIF Digital Finance Regulation Symposium in Brussels, panelists Bob Contri (Deloitte), Andres Wolberg-Stok (Citibank) and Patrick Maes (Credit Suisse) share their top takeaways from the discussions on Open Banking, Cloud and Machine Learning (Brad Carr)

Machine Learning Paper on Explainability in Predictive Modeling

November 5, 2018

As the first paper in the IIF’s Thematic Series on Machine Learning, we explore the topic of “explainability” of these techniques as they are adopted in financial services.

IIF Insurance Update - October 2018

October 31, 2018

The October Insurance Update provides targeted updates on IIF insurance activities and events, and highlights relevant IIF publications or related regulatory developments in other fields.

Public

FRT Episode 13: Live from Sibos - Combatting Financial Crime

October 29, 2018

SWIFT’s Head of Financial Crime Compliance Tony Wicks joins us to discuss the role of innovation in Anti-Money Laundering and Financial Crime Compliance, the potential in leveraging new technologies, and the importance of greater efficiency in a stronger financial system (Adrien Delle-Case)

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Upcoming Events

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2018 IIF Insurance Dialogue

The Hague, Netherlands

November 29 to November 30

@IIF

Swings in global risk appetite tend to be a big driver of #EmergingMarkets currency movements. t.co/a1OUsyn19T

12 hours
@IIF

High housing prices and rising mortgage rates could be discouraging prospective buyers in many countries. t.co/bwjKPCfk5h

13 hours
@IIF

Fund investors are snapping up high yield debt despite tightening financial conditions t.co/MezpbC4ISX

16 hours
@IIF

Ghana’s growth rebounded on the back of increased oil output and will remain relatively strong this year and next. t.co/QEXeRpfJ2A

18 hours
@IIF

ICYMI: Levels of FX debt for EM non-bank borrowers is at 14% of GDP—lower than all-time high of 17% seen in 1999. t.co/WxB27ufTYe

20 hours
@IIF

#Fintech can help extend financial services to unbanked population, but adoption in the #MENA region has been slow t.co/a9ixgdr4kH

1 day
@IIF

ICYMI: Close to 20% of non-financial firms in the U.S. (by asset size) are facing difficulty covering interest expe… t.co/jxLoSgkEtN

1 day
@IIF

ICYMI: Learn how Chinese Bigtechs are leveraging enormous amounts of #data to create new business models:… t.co/bxPvB9RuZC

4 days
@IIF

Turkey: The ongoing weakening of economic activity and domestic credit crunch caused MLT loans' rollover ratios to… t.co/xvThgAAHzz

4 days
@IIF

Tune into our sixteenth episode of FRT. IIF’s @conanfrench1 and Dennis Ferenzy discuss the rise of Chinese Bigtech… t.co/3GdHUK9woZ

5 days
@IIF

Share of stressed firms(ICR<1) has reduced in 2018, more pronounced in #Canada, #India, #China and #Indonesia. Impr… t.co/SWa8GR8xNT

5 days
@IIF

Levels of FX debt for EM non-bank borrowers is at 14% of GDP—lower than all-time high of 17% seen in 1999 t.co/L1mN1ivG3U

5 days
@IIF

Global debt declined by $1.5 trillion to $247 trillion in Q2 2018 or 317% of GDP, driven by mature markets. EM debt… t.co/e7RFlMODu1

5 days
@IIF

Our latest Global Bank Risk Management survey, in cooperation with @EY_Banking, has identified four imperative risk… t.co/1LV82wEmsV

1 week
@IIF

"As technology and ongoing competitive disruption force banks to reinvent themselves, the risk management function… t.co/yscEDSjCkw

1 week